000
AGXX40 KNHC 230715
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 AM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH GFS 
AND ECMWF WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH IS IN THE NE GULF WHILE A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES 
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS 
GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WIND FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A 
WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA TODAY INTO THE SW GULF SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH A SLIGHT 
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. A RIDGE ALONG 27N WILL 
MEANDER NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND MAINTAIN 
GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THU.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                      
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH GFS AND 
ECMWF WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF BASIN WITH HIGHEST 
WINDS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. 
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0150 UTC SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF 25-30 
KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 20-25 KT WINDS NORTHWARD TO 
ABOUT 16N IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AS HIGH PRES REMAINS 
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. THE HIGH PRES WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN WED 
AND THU...ALLOWING THE AERIAL EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF THE TRADES 
TO DECREASE. EXPECT SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TRADES.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 86W WILL MOVE W OF THE 
REGION BY TONIGHT. A WEAKER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W ENTERING THE 
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY 
MON AND REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE. A THIRD BETTER-DEFINED 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 43W WILL CROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON NIGHT 
AND TUE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED. MARINE GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS THAT AN AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND 
SEAS OF UP TO 10 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...               
     
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH GFS AND 
ECMWF WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS 
THE SW N ATLC DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...PRODUCING MODERATE TO 
FRESH WINDS IN SOUTHERN WATERS AND GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS 
IN NORTHERN WATERS. TROPICAL WAVES PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PASSING 
THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF 
THE REGION WITH LITTLE OR NO EFFECT EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN WATERS.

$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.