000
AGXX40 KNHC 221807
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
207 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH GFS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG THE NORTH WATERS WHILE A RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED GENTLE
TO MODERATE E-SE WIND FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION A NARROW BAND OF 15-20 KT EXTENDING W-SW FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W AT 1200 UTC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA SUN INTO THE SW GULF SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. A RIDGE ALONG 27N WILL
MEANDER NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH WED.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                      
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH GFS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF BASIN WITH HIGHEST 
WINDS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. 
AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS
AND SHOWED AN AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS COVERING FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS MOST
OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AS HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED NEAR
BERMUDA. ON WED...THE HIGH PRES WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND THE
AERIAL EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF THE TRADES WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE.
EXPECT SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TRADES.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AMERICA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WAVE IS
CURRENTLY GENERATING SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY S OF 15N. WINDS 
AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. A WEAKER TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 50W AND WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY SUN...
MOVE INTO EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY MON AND REACH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TUE. A THIRD AND BETTER DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W
WILL CROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON NIGHT AND TUE MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WWD AT ABOUT
7-8 DEGREES PER DAY. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN AREA OF
20-25 KT WINDS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS OF UP TO 10 FT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE WAVE.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...               
     
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH GFS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS
THE SW N ATLC DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD PRODUCING MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THE TROPICAL WAVES
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF
REGION WITH LITTLE OR NO EFFECT EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN WATERS.

$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.