000
AGXX40 KNHC 220710
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
310 AM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH GFS AND 
ECMWF WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND WEAK HIGH 
PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N92W HIGHLIGHT A WEAK SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN 
THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WIND 
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION A NARROW BAND OF 
15-20 KT CONVERGENT WINDS EXTENDING W-SW FROM THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W 
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN SUN INTO THE SW GULF SUN NIGHT AND 
MON WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. A RIDGE 
ALONG 27N WILL MEANDER NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF 
AND MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS THROUGH WED.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                      
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH GFS AND 
ECMWF WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF BASIN WITH HIGHEST 
WINDS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. 
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0210 UTC SHOWED 25-30 KT WINDS N OF 
COLOMBIA NEAR 13N76W. LARGER AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS WAS EVIDENT 
ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AT 21/1500 UTC CENTERED NEAR 13N74W 
WHICH GAVE A GOOD DEPICTION OF AREAL EXTENT OF WINDS GREATER 
THAN 20 KT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W WILL MOVE W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA 
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THEN REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN. 
WEAKER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 47W EXPECTED TO ENTER TROPICAL N ATLC 
WATERS S OF 16N EARLY SUN...MOVE INTO EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY 
MON AND REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE 
ALONG 34W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY TUE. MODEL 
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE THIRD WAVE WILL HAVE ACTIVE CONVECTION 
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS 
TUE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...               
     
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH GFS AND 
ECMWF WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS 
ACROSS THE REGION. BROAD RIDGE ALONG 29N WILL DRIFT N THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED. 
TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 47W AND 34W WILL MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH WED 
WITH LITTLE OR NO EFFECT EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN WATERS.

$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.