000
AGXX40 KNHC 191904
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
304 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF CONSENSUS ADJUSTED TO 12 UTC NHC
ADVISORY.

AIR FORCE RECONAISSANCE MEASURED 40 KT ON W SEMICIRCLE OF SYSTEM
AND IT HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BARRY AT 1845 UTC. LIFE
EXPECTANCY REMAINS SHORT-LIVED AS ITS TRACK PUTS BARRY OVER LAND
IN MEXICO NEAR 19.5N 96.5W BY LATE THU. OUTFLOW HAS BEEN NOTED TO
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH BETTER OUTFLOW AND CURVING LOW LEVEL
CONVECTION BANDS. AT THIS TIME...WARNINGS ARE BEING POSTED FOR
AFFECTED ZONES. GFS HAD...UNTIL NOW...A GOOD HANDLE ON WINDS WITH
WW3 BUILDING SEAS TO 15 FT...BUT TURNS CENTER MORE TO THE S THAN
UKMET OR ECMWF...SO STRENGTH FORECAST MAIN INGREDIENT RECON DATA
WITH ADVISORY TRACK CLOSER TO UKMET TRACK. HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO
BE MAIN FEATURE OF SYSTEM ALTHOUGH WIND AND SURGE THREATS INCREASE
WITH STRENGTHENING.

ELSEWHERE...RIDGE ALONG 26N TO DRIFT N TO ALONG 29N BY FRI AND
ALLOW FOR E-SE FLOW TO RETURN TO BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE THU OR FRI
THROUGH WEEKEND.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                      
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSIST ACROSS BASIN W OF 65W. STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE MOVE W-NW THROUGH NE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ALSO HAVE IMPACT INTO SE PORTION OF SW N ATLC. WAVE UNDER
VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND CONDITION MAY CONTINUE
IF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE ENHANCING DIVERGENCE RETREATS W ALONG WITH
WAVE. MODEL GUIDANCE ACTUALLY DRIFT CYCLONE TO THE NW WHICH MAY
PULL SUPPORT FROM WAVE AND CURTAIL ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
FORECAST INCREASE WIND AND SEAS AND AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
DUE TO LOW LEVEL WIND SURGE BEHIND WAVE AXIS.

ELSEWHERE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES COVER BASIN THROUGH SAT...WIND
AND SEAS SUBSIDING BY THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD. LONG FETCH ON
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF ATLC RIDGE BRING 8-10 FT EASTERLY SWELL INTO
TROPICAL ATLC ZONES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE IN FORECAST
PERIOD AS RIDGE WEAKENS AND IS FORCES EASTWARD BY COLD FRONT WELL
N OF CARIBBEAN.


...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...                    
GFS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND ADDED AMOUNT AND HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

ATLC RIDGE TO HOLD THROUGH FIRST HALF OF FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK
FRONT MOVES INTO FAR NW CORNER OF AREA LATE THU THROUGH SAT THEN
DISSIPATES. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD AS WAVE MOVES W-NW
AWAY FROM ZONES. WW3 SHOWS SEAS PEAKING AT 9-10 FT BETWEEN
HISPANIOLA AND TURKS AND CAICOS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND WAVE THU
EVENING.

$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.