000 AGXX40 KNHC 190805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 405 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/UKMET CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS ADJUSTED TO 00 UTC TC FORECAST. TD TWO IS NOW OVER OPEN WATERS OF SE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND HAS GAINED CNVTN ACROSS NRN SEMICIRCLE AND APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY W-NW. PEMEX BUOY CS2 JUST TO THE NE OF CENTER OF THE TD REPORTING SE WINDS 19 M/S AND SEAS 2.5 M AT 0625Z AND HAS REMAINED IN THOSE GENERAL CONDITIONS PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER TROUGH W OF THE TD CONTINUES TO SHIFT W AND ALLOW RIDGING TO GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS AND TO E OF TD...AND WOULD NOT TAKE TOO MUCH FOR TS STORM FORCE WINDS TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE N AND NE SEMICIRCLES NEXT 12-24 HRS BEFORE SYSTEM SHIFTS INLAND ACROSS MEXICO. PARTIAL ASCAT-A PASS AT 0314 REVEALED 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE NNW OF CENTER AND TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NW INVOF CNVTN FIRING ALONG 95-96W ATTM. GFS REMAINS FAST WHILE ECMWF IS TO FAR S...AND UKMET IN CLOSEST IN CENTER PLACEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM, SO HAVE BLENDED IN UKMET IN SHORT TERM. HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF YUCATAN TODAY IN SE QUAD OF BROADER CIRCULATION. WE ARE RUNNING NWPS OFF OUR WIND GRIDS AND TRYING TO INCORPORATETHIS INTO SWH FCST...WHICH IS PEAKING AT 12 FT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LAST MINUTE CHANGES WOULD BE NEEDED SHOULD NHC DECIDE TO FCST TS WITH NEXT PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...RIDGE ALONG 27N IN NE GULF TO SHIFT SLOWLY N TO ALONG 29N BY FRI AND ALLOW FOR ELY FLOW TO LIFT N ACROSS THE BASIN TO 27N BY THAT TIME. MODELS SUGGEST MODERATE E TO SE FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH SAT WITH EVENING SEABREEZE INDUCE TROUGH PUSHING OFF YUCATAN EACH NIGHT AND YIELDING BRIEF LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING PULSE OF INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSISTING ACROSS THE BASIN W OF 66W...WITH LLVL TROUGHING EVOLVING ACROSS ERN CARIB ACROSS AND JUST W OF LESSER ANTILLES IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING WAVE BEING DRAWN NW AND BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH ATLC UPPER TROUGH. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH E CARIB PAST 24 HOURS BECOMING DIFFUSE AND HAS ENTERED STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRAIGHT LINE E WINDS...AND WE WILL LIKELY DROP IT FROM MAPS SOON. SECOND IMPULSE TRAILING THIS WAVE AND DISCUSSED IN RECENT DAYS WILL BE ADDED AS A TROPICAL WAVE ON 06Z MAP AND FCST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE NRN CARIB AND ADJACENT ATLC...REACHING MONA PASSAGE AT 00Z TONIGHT...E TIP OF CUBA 00Z FRI...AND 78/79W BY 00Z SAT. MODELS SHOW 25-30 KT WITH AND BEHIND WAVE AT H7 AND WILL PROVIDE ENERGETICS FOR ACTIVE CNTVN ALONG THIS TRAJECTORY. LLVL WIND SURGE WITH AND BEHIND THIS WAVE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO 20-25 KT AND 7-8 FT ACROSS PORTIONS N OF 16N AS WAVE MOVES W-NW NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE...BROAD ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO DOMINATE THE BASIN E OF 81-82W THROUGH SAT...WITH WITH AND SEAS SUBSIDING WELL E OF SECOND WAVE BEGINNING FRI. NOCTURNAL MAX TO PULSE TO 30 KT EACH NIGHT OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA. E OF THE ISLANDS ANOTHER BRIEF WIND SURGE OF 20-25 KT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS AND ISLANDS TODAY BEHIND THIS SECOND WAVE AND KEEP SEAS GENERALLY 8-9 FT WITH ISOLATED PEAKS TO 10 FT THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THU AS WAVE MOVES W OF 72W. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... GFS/ECMWF BLEND. ATLC RIDGE TO HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK FRONT TO MOVE INTO FAR NW CORNER OF AREA THU AFTERNOON AND MEANDER THERE THROUGH SAT BEFORE LIFTING N AND DISSIPATING. FRESH TRADES TO CONTINUE S OF 22N AND WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 7-9 FT AS NE CARIB TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W-NW ACROSS THE AREA AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. WW3 SHOWS SEAS PEAKING AT 9-10 FT BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND TURKS AND CAICOS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND WAVE THU EVENING. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO RECENT GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.