000 AGXX40 KNHC 180802 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN GEFS MEAN ADJUSTED TO LATEST TC FORECAST RIDGE CONTINUES NEARLY E TO W FROM OFFSHORE OF TAMPA BAY TO CENTRAL TEXAS COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ALONG THIS POSITION THROUGH WED THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT N TO ALONG TO COASTS FRI AND SAT. CURRENTLY 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW...WITH SEAS 3-5 FT PREVAILS ACROSS NW PORTIONS INTO TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...WHILE E TO E-SE WINDS AT 10-15 KT/SEAS 2-3 FT ARE OBSERVED FROM FL STRAITS W ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE...AND SW WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 1-3 FT ACROSS NE PORTIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SEEN IN RECENT GUIDANCE ACROSS MAJORITY OF BASIN FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH GLOBAL MODELS DOING WINDSHIELD WIPING EFFECT WITH TRAJECTORY OF T.D. TWO...WITH LATEST 00Z RUNS OF BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHIFTING VERY SLIGHTLY N THROUGH 72HRS. CENTER STILL FORECAST TO EMERGE OUT OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG ABOUT 93.5W AND CONTINUE W OVER WATER BEFORE ENTERING MEXICO AGAIN AT ABOUT 96W. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION MAY ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WHILE OVER WATER AND SHIP GUIDANCE BRIEFLY BRINGS SYSTEM TO MINIMAL TS STRENGTH BY 48 HOURS. WILL HAVE TO MAKE LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST TO REFLECT LATEST THINKING INCORPORATED IN OFFICIAL FORECAST. SQUALLS AND SHORT BANDS OF MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS E BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 93W AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT W-NW NEXT FEW DAYS. NWPS FORECAST FROM 18Z RUN PRODUCED MAX SEAS OF 14 FT THU 12-18Z AND MAYHAVE BEEN A BIT HIGH FOR SLOW MOVING 30 KT SYSTEM. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS T.D. TWO CONTINUES TO MOVE W-NW ACROSS BELIZE AND GUATEMALA ATTM AND WILL YIELD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS LEADING TO FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES NEXT 36-48 HOURS. A 0250 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT ELY WINDS THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS...AND DECENT SIZED AREA OF 25-30 KT E-NE WINDS OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH 25 KT EXTENDING N TO 16N. MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SUSTAINED FRESH TO STRONG FLOW THROUGH ENTIRE BASIN THROUGH TUE BEFORE SECONDARY IMPULSE TRAILING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS SE CARIB...BEGINS TO MOVE W-NW ACROSS LESSER ANTILLES TUE EVENING AND THEN ACROSS NE CARIB AND ADJACENT ATLC WED. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NE CARIB ATTM PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS NE CARIB W OF 63W BY IS FORECAST TO REORGANIZE AND RETROGRADE W LATE TUE THROUGH WED AND INTERACT VERY FAVORABLY WITH SECOND WAVE MOVING ACROSS NE CARIB WED AND COULD YIELD STRONG TO INTENSE TSTORMS AND SQUALLS SHIFTING ACROSS NE CARIB WATERS AND ISLANDS AND INTO ATLC WATERS. TRADES TO RESTRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT ENTIRE BASIN LATE WED INTO THU AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES W-NW...REACHING WINDWARD PASSAGE BY 00Z THU. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NOCTURNAL WIND MAX OF 30 KT OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT AROUND 06Z...AND IS POSSIBLE THAT GALES ARE OCCURRING NOW THERE. GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON STRENGTH OF WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND WAVE TUE-WED MOVING ACROSS NE CARIB...AND SEAS HAVE BEEN TONED DOWN TO 7-9 FT THEN. ALTHOUGH EPISODES OF SAL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGIONAL WATERS TO THE N AND BEHIND THE PASSING TROPICAL WAVES...IT IS MY EXPERIENCE THAT VSBYS RARELY DROP TO 3 NM IN DUST...AND OUR EFFORTS TO INCORPORATE SAL AND REDUCED VSBYS INTO WX GRIDS PAST FEW DAYS MIGHT HAVE BEEN A BIT OVERZEALOUS. I AM THUS CHOOSING TO DROP THE 3-5 NM VSBY WORDING FROM FCSTS UNTIL I SEE OBS SUGGESTING LOW VSBYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS UPPER TROUGH AXIS ROTATING ACROSS SE PORTIONS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT YIELDING SUBSIDENCE AND/OR GENERALLY STABLE UPPER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF AREA TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 24.5N65.5W THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO DIG SW AND REORGANIZE THE BASE OF TROUGH TO YIELD MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS SE PORTIONS LATE TUE INTO WED. FRONTAL REMNANTS ACROSS NE PORTIONS ATTM WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NEXT 36 HOURS AND ALLOW ATLC RIDGE TO BUILD SW ACROSS AREA...JUST AS SECOND WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE IS MOVING W-NW ACROSS NE CARIB AND CONTINUING ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS THROUGH FRI. THIS TO MAINTAIN E-SE TRADES NEAR 20 KT S OF 22N TODAY THROUGH WED WITH SEAS 5-7 FT AND PEAK NEAR 8 FT N OF WINDWARD PASSAGE...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THROUGH SE BAHAMAS THU WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-10 FT N OF WINDWARD PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.