000 AGXX40 KNHC 171749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 149 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLENDED SMALL PERCENT OF LATEST GFS INTO PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE WHICH CONSISTS OF GFS THRU 36 HOURS AND GEFS MEAN FROM 42 HOURS THROUGH DAY 6. ALSO BLENDED IN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE NE TX COAST IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ALONG THIS POSITION THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN SHIFT N ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS ON FRI AND SAT. CURRENTLY 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW...WITH SEAS 2-4 FT...IS OBSERVED ALONG THE SURFACE RIDGE PERIPHERY...OVER THE SW AND W CENTRAL WATERS... E WINDS AT 10-15 KT/SEAS 2-3 FT ARE OBSERVED IN FL STRAITS... AND GENERALLY 5-10 KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EMERGING IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 18.8N 93.0 LATE TUE... THEN MOVE WNW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BECOMING A MINIMAL TS NEAR 20N96W EARLY THU MORNING AND INLAND THU EVENING. SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE TROPICAL DERESSION /TS STILL HUGS THE MEXICAN COAST LIMITING THE FETCH WILL HOLD THE E MAX SEAS TO 14-15 FT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. INCLUDED SQUALL WORDING IN TEXT PRODUCTS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLENDED SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND T.D. TWO FORMED AT 16N ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WELL E OF AN UPPER CYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER OLD MEXICO AT 17.5N94W. AN UPPER TROUGH ALSO CONTINUES TO DIG S INTO THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN A DEFAULT UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE TD AND TROPICAL WAVE WITH THE SLIGHEST HINT OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY FORMING NEAR 20N81W. THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL IS SHIFTING W WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY LIKELY TO SPREAD W ACROSS LAND TONIGHT...THUS SATELLITE RAINFALL GUIDANCE IS BEING ISSUED UNDER PRODUCT HEADERS TCCA23 KNHC/ MIASTDWCA...FOR NOW SEEMS THAT THE CONVECTION WILL PASS S OF WESTERN CUBA. REPORT FROM SHIP A8MG8 IN RAIN ARRIVED JUST AFTER 12Z SEASTATE ANALYSIS WAS DISSEMINATED. ALTHOUGH I DEPICTED A 9 FT MAX IN GULF OF HONDURAS AT 17N85W...THE SHIP WAS EXPERIENCING 8 FT SEAS ABOUT 130 NM FURTHER TO THE SW. STRENGTHENING ATLC HIGH PRES IS MAINTAINING 20-25 KT E TRADES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA S OF 20N...EXCEPT 25-30 KT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. A REINFORCING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 11N ALONG 55W HAS MOVED W OF THE MID-ATLC RIDGE AND IS NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE NW THAN W AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARDS TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SCT RASH/ISOLD TS. THE WAVE WILL REACH ALONG 67W AT DAYBREAK WED...ALONG 72W EARLY THU...AND MOVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FRI-SAT. THE SARAHAN DUST LIMITING VSBY 3 TO 5 NM IN HAZE ACROSS THE AREA FROM 13N-22N E OF 65W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 55W-65W TONIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND AN UPPER TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT IS DIGGING S ACROSS THE AREA BUT AN UPPER CYCLONE IS FORMING ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 26N64W. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WATERS NEAR 24N67W AND NEAR 28N63W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT HAS WEAKEND TO A TROUGH FROM 31N62W TO 24N70W WITH A QUASI- STATIONARY RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED NW OF THE TROUGH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FL. THE EASTERLIES WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N TONIGHT AND THEN BE REINFORCED AS A TROPICAL WAVE GAINS LATITUDE AS IT PROGRESSES NW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW MUCH INTERACTION THE WAVE WILL HAVE WITH THE UPPER CYCLONE CURRENTLY FORMING NEAR 26N64W. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.