000 AGXX40 KNHC 170816 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 416 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH 48 HRS THEN GEFS MEAN THROUGH DAY 6 RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OFFSHORE OF TAMPA BAY W ALONG 27.5N TO NW GULF AND EXPECTED TO HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TUE WHEN TROPICAL WAVE IN W CARIB AND NEARING THE YUCATAN MOVES ACROSS SW GULF WITH SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE W-NW ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE OR JUST INLAND. CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS ARE IN LINE WITH GFS GUIDANCE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM NE GULF TO ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BECOMING NARROW WITH TIME AND DRIFTING W-NW. SOME WAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE HAVE ALREADY MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL AND WILL SPREAD SLOWLY W AND NW INTO SE AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE AXIS MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SFC LOW THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WILL TRACK W-NW AND COULD EMERGE ALONG THE COAST OF ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE MORNING AND CONTINUE W-NW AND INLAND ACROSS MEXICO BY THU AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AN ELONGATED TROUGH IS SUGGESTED TO EVOLVE BY MODELS NW TO SE DURING THIS TIME AND MAY WORK AGAINST SIGNIFICANT SURFACE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...GRADIENT TO NE OF TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SE WINDS 20-25 KT LATE TUE THROUGH LATE WED AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 25-30 KT THU AS DEPICTED BY GFS. GFS HAS TONED DOWN ITS FORECAST IN PAST FEW RUNS AND IS IN LINE WITH GEFS MEAN AND IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH UKMET. WW3 RESPONDS BY BUILDING SEAS 5-7 FT ACROSS SW GULF BY LATE TUE THEN INCREASES TO 6-9 FT LATE WED THEN 7-10 FT BY THU EVENING. WITH 30 KT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP...I WILL ACCEPT THE 10 FT MAX FOR THU EVENING. SQUALLS AND LINES OF TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE COMPLEX AND SHIFT W AND NW...EXITING THE YUCATAN BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND REACHING THE MEXICAN COAST TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TUE NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS PRECISE LOCATION OF AXIS OF W CARIB TROPICAL WAVE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT IRRELEVANT ATTM AS BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS EVOLVED PAST 36 HOURS...NOW MOVING WWD ALONG THE N COAST OF HONDURAS. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES OF THE PAST FEW HOURS AGAIN SUGGEST LIGHT E TO NE WIND FLOW N OF 20N AND NON RAIN FLAGGED WINDS 20-25 KT S OF 19N AND SHIFTING INTO GULF OF HONDURAS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG THE COAST OR JUST INLAND...WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING IN SW CORNER OF GULF POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR BRIEF SFC LOW THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE BROADER DEEPER CIRCULATION SHIFTS W AND INLAND. LOOK FOR INCREASING WINDS ACROSS FAR W AND NW CARIB TODAY INCREASING TO 20-30 IN GULF OF HONDURAS AND SEAS BUILDING 7-9 WITH SMALL AREA OF 10 FT POSSIBLE. LINES AND CLUSTERS OF DEEP CNVTN WILL ACCOMPANY WAVE AS IT SHIFTS W AND GRADUALLY IMPACT BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN STRONGLY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SECONDARY IMPULSE TRAILING THIS TROPICAL WAVE HAS LIFTED ACROSS BACKSIDE OF WAVE AND THROUGH NW CARIB PAST 24 HOURS...LEAVING A LARGE AREA OF SAL AND STRONG LLVL WINDS BUILDING IN BEHIND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. BUOY 42058 HAS RECENTLY RISEN AGAIN TO 10 FT WHILE A RECENT CRYOSAT PASS MEASURED WAVE HEIGHTS TO NEAR 11 FT JUST DOWNWIND OF THE BUOY. WINDS AND SEAS E OF 80W WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH TUE AS NEXT TROPICAL WAVE COMPLEX MOVES W-NW ACROSS THE E CARIB TUE THROUGH WED. AS DISCUSSED IN RECENT DAYS...STRONG ATLC RIDGE HAS AIDED IN CREATING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE LENGTH TROPICAL WAVES THAT HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER...AS THIS NEXT WAVE COMPLEX MOVES ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT AND MON AND ACROSS E CARIB TUE THROUGH WED...THE LEAD WAVE IS EXPECTED TO GROW SOMEWHAT BAROTROPICALLY AND THEN BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH W ATLC UPPER TROUGH DIGGING TOWARDS THE NE CARIB. SECOND IMPULSE TRAILING CLOSELY BEHIND IS FORECAST TO RIDGE UP BACKSIDE OF LEADING WAVE AND ACROSS THE LEEWARDS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTO PUERTO RICO AND USVI BY WED. A 30-40 KT MID LEVEL WIND SURGE WITH THIS SECOND IMPULSE COULD COMBINE WITH THE INSTABILITY OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT ATLC WATERS. A 20-25 KT E-SE WIND SURGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NE CARIB DURING THIS TIME WITH SEAS BUILDING 7-9 FT ACROSS EXPOSED WATERS. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN TROUGH AND BEHIND IT...AND MODEST CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION SHIFTING NE AND OUT OF AREA ALONG E SIDE OF TROUGH. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW DIFFUSE ACROSS AREA. HIGH PRES NE OF BERMUDA WILL MAINTAIN RIDGE SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEXT FEW DAYS TO YIELD MODERATE TO FRESH E TO S-SE TRADES ACROSS S PORTIONS INTO THE BAHAMA BANK. WINDS THOUGH THIS SRN CORRIDOR TO INCREASE WITH NEXT TROPICAL WAVE COMPLEX LATE TUE THROUGH WED WITH SEAS BUILDING 7-9 FT...AND POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG SQUALLS AND TSTMS AS MENTIONED ABOVE MOVING VERY QUICKLY WITH AND AHEAD OF WAVE BEGINNING EARLY WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.