000 AGXX40 KNHC 161803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 203 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLENDED SMALL PERCENT OF LATEST GFS INTO PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE WHICH CONSISTS OF GFS/ECMWF BLEND THROUGH 66 HRS THEN GEFS MEAN THROUGH DAY 6. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE TX COASTAL BEND IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ALONG THIS LATITUDE THROUGH FRI. CURRENTLY 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW...WITH SEAS 2-4 FT...IS OBSERVED ALONG THE SURFACE RIDGE PERIPHERY...OVER THE SW AND W CENTRAL WATERS... AND GENERALLY 5-10 KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FAR NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL PASS THROUGH THE YUCATAN BASIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON MON NIGHT REACHING THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE. THE LATEST THINKING IS A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AT 19N93.5W ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT SUNRISE WED...MOVE W NEAR 19N95.5W AT SUNRISE THU...THEN WEAKEN BACK TO AN OPEN WAVE/TROUGH ALONG 97.5W AT SUNRISE FRI...AND DISSIPATE ON FRI NIGHT. THESE POSITIONS HAVE THE HUGGING THE COAST OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES WNW WITH LAND OVER ITS SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE... WILL FORECAST THE CYCLONIC WINDS TO A MAX OF 25 KT AND SEAS MAXING AT 10 FT...MAINLY DUE TO WIND WAVE...IN THE LIMITED FETCH OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. PRECIP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS WATERS S OF 22N EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AND NEAR THE LOW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLENDED SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE WAVE HAS NOT PASSED THEIR LOCATION AT THE SURFACE LEVEL...AND ALSO VERIFIED BY THE LATEST GRAND CAYMAN SOUNDING. INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE UNDER A AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE OF AN UPPER CYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER N GUATEMALA ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A W-ATLC TUTT. THIS UPPER CYCLONE IS SHIFTING W WITH TIME WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND DEBRIS MOISTURE ALSO SHIFTING W. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W TO ALONG ABOUT 86W LATE TONIGHT AND BE W OF AREA OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY MON NIGHT. NE WINDS AT 15-20 KT ARE NOTED WITHIN ABOUT 480 NM W OF WAVE...WHILE STRENGTHENING ATLC HIGH PRES SUPPORTS E-SE 20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE WAVE...BUT ONLY NE-E 15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THIS EVENING SUPPORTING 20-25 KT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE WAVE...EXCEPT 25-30 KT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEEMS LIKE THE GRADIENT TRIES TO RELAX A LITTLE ACROSS FORECAST AREA E OF 70W ON TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BUT A REINFORCING SURGE...PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT NORTHWARD BOW IN CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AT 47W...ARRIVES IN THE E CARIBBEAN... AND SHIFTS W REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS ON WED. ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR 27N65W IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE TO OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND INTERACT WITH THE TROUGH JUST MENTIONED MOVING FROM ESE TO WNW RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLY CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK. SARAHAN DUST IS LIMITING VSBY 3 TO 5 NM IN HAZE FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 56W AND 65W. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND AN UPPER TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT IS DIGGING S ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS STALLING FROM 31N60W TO 26N72W WITH REMNANTS OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT N OF THE AREA ON MON AS A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM 31N55W TO CENTRAL FL. THE EASTERLIES WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 24N ON MON NIGHT AND CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRI. THE S-SW FLOW N OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT MON NIGHT AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BRIEFLY TUE NIGHT...THEN THE GRADIENT RELAXES SUPPORTING 10-15 KT AGAIN THU AND FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.