000 AGXX40 KNHC 160804 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 404 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HRS THEN GEFS MEAN DAY 3 THROUGH DAY 6 WEAK HIGH PRES PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING WITH YDA'S FRONTAL BOUNDARY STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF AND WASHING OUT QUICKLY. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS CURRENTLY OFF NW YUCATAN COAST AND ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE 3-4 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IN PATTERN NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE RIDGE LIFTS SLIGHTLY NWD TO ALONG 28N...AND TUTT LOW OVER YUCATAN BEGINS TO RETROGRADE WWD AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED RIDGING OVER CNVTN IN WRN CARIB ASSOCIATED WITH ENERGETIC TROPICAL WAVE...AND GFS SOLUTION OF RECENT DAYS MAY NOT BE THAT FAR FETCHED. TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE W-NW ACROSS YUCATAN MON AND INTO FAR ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SRN GULF TUE WITH SURFACE LOW LIKELY DEVELOPING NEAR COAST ALONG SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUE THROUGH WED AND SHIFTING W-NW AND PROBABLY INLAND BY LATE THU. GRADIENT ACROSS N AND NE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW AND/OR NE QUAD OF WAVE EXPECTED TO YIELD E TO SE WINDS 20-25 KT WITH GFS FORECASTING WINDS BRIEFLY AT GALE OR TC STRENGTH WED MORNING...HOWEVER WE ARE CAPPING WINDS AT 25 KT FOR THE TIME BEING. SQUALLS AND SCT STRONG TSTMS TO MOVE W-NW OFF THE YUCATAN AND INTO SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE BEGINNING LATE MON AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT NW AND INTO MEXICAN COAST THROUGH WED...WITH WAVE RELATED MOISTURE REACHING DEEP SRN TEXAS BY WED AFTERNOON. SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF NW CARIB AND INTO SRN GULF BEHIND WAVE STARTING MON NIGHT AS SAL AND MID TROP JET WITH WAVE MOVES NW INTO GULF...MAINLY AFFECTING YUCATAN CHANNEL THEN S CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL SECTIONS BY WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS INTERESTING WEATHER NEXT FEW DAYS. ENERGETIC TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG ABOUT 82.5W HAS BLOWN UP CONVECTIVELY PAST 12 HOURS UNDER UPPER RIDGING ACROSS W CARIB OCCURRING SE OF TUTT LOW OVER YUCATAN. THIS UPPER PATTER TO SHIFT SLOWLY W NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND EXPECTED TO LEAD TO CLUSTERS OF STRONG CNVTN SHIFTING WITH WAVE ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...THE NW CARIB...AND THEN ACROSS THE YUCATAN MON THROUGH TUE. GFS STILL AGGRESSIVE IN FORECASTING CYCLOGENESIS...AND GIVEN MID LEVEL ROTATION IN SW CARIB ATTM AND RIDGING ALOFT...THIS MAY NOT BE SO FAR FETCHED. SECONDARY IMPULSE TRAILING THIS WAVE NOW ALONG 77W AND HAS LIFTED NW AS FORECAST BY GFS AND INTO JAMAICA...WITH HUGE AREA OF SAL ENTERING CARIB PAST 12 HOURS...AND CLEARLY DEPICTED IN TJSJ 00Z SOUNDING. SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF SE COAST OF U.S. TO DRIFT INTO SW ATLC TODAY AND STRENGTHEN GRADIENT BEHIND WAVE...AND FRESHEN FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN W OF 68W WITH BUILDING SEAS. WW3 TYPICALLY OVERFORECASTS SEAS ACROSS W CENTRAL AND NW CARIB BUT AM BUYING WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING 8-10 FT NEXT 36 HOURS THERE AS WAVE MOVES INTO YUCATAN. WINDS 20-25 KT EXPECTED ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS...POSSIBLY PEAKING NEAR 30 KT AT NOCTURNAL MAX MON NIGHT...AND EASILY 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA NEXT 2 NIGHTS...WITH GFS SUGGESTING BRIEF AND SMALL AREA OF GALES OFF COLOMBIA. JUST AS WINDS AND SEAS LOOKS AS THOUGH THEY MIGHT BEGIN TO ABATE SOME TUE INTO WED...ANOTHER PAIR OF LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION WILL LIFT OUT OF DEEP TROPICS AND MOVE W-NW TO NW ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND E CARIB. BAROTROPIC GROWTH IS TO BE EXPECTED AS THESE WAVE ENTER CARIB AND FEED OF MID TROPOSPHERIC JET...AND WITH INTERACTION WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NE CARIB...PUERTO RICO AND LEEWARDS TO E LIKELY TO SEE STRONG CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AS SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH AREA. SAL OUT AHEAD WILL AID IN SQUALLS AND STRONG GUSTS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS THE N EXTENSION OF THE CARIB TROPICAL WAVE HAS RACKED ACROSS CUBA TONIGHT WITH LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS SRN WATERS. UPPER TROUGH SINKING SE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS ATTM WITH IMPULSE ON E SIDE MOVING NE AND TRIGGERING DEEP CELLS E OF 70W ALONG AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND NOW FROM SE OF BERMUDA TO NW BAHAMAS...WITH MOST OF BOUNDARY UNDER SUBSIDENCE IN UPPER TROUGH. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG SFC TROUGH INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING E OF 65W TONIGHT. UPPER TROUGH TO GRADUALLY DIG SE AND PRODUCE FAVORABLE UPPER CONDITIONS FOR DEEP CNVTN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND TO LESSER DEGREE PUERTO RICO TODAY...AND THEN PR AND REST OF NE CARIB REGION MON AND BEYOND. FRONTAL REMNANT TO MOVE E-SE TO AROUND 30N60W AND BECOME STATIONARY BY 24 HOURS THEN WASH OUT...WITH ATLC RIDGE THEN BEGINNING TO DOMINATE THE REGION FIRST PART OF WEEK. THIS TO PRODUCE MODERATE TRADES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS S OF 22N THROUGH MON THEN FRESHENING TO NEAR 20 KT S OF 22N TUE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE... LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE LENGTH TROPICAL WAVES TO LIFT NW OUT OF DEEP TROPICS...ACROSS E AND NE CARIB TUE AND ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AND INTO SE WATERS WED...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS AND ACTIVE CNVTN...AND FRESHENING TRADES S OF 22-23N. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.