000 AGXX40 KNHC 151729 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 129 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS INTO PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE WITH MUCH MANUAL EDIT TO WAVE AND LOW PRES SYSTEM A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGRESSING S OVER FLORIDA... CURRENTLY ALONG 28N...BUT IS LIFTING VERY SLOWLY N ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS. FURTHER S...A RIDGE EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS WITH A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH OCCASIONALLY FORMING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. THE FRONT WILL LOSE IDENTITY EARLY TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS THEN SHIFTING SLOWLY N AND BECOMING STATIONARY FROM E TO W ALONG 27.5N ON SUN...THEN MEANDERING ALONG THIS LATITUDE THROUGH MID WEEK. CURRENTLY 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW IS OBSERVED ALONG RIDGE PERIPHERY OVER THE SW AND W CENTRAL WATERS AND GENERALLY 5-10 KT ELSEWHERE...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT THROUGHOUT. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE EXCEPT THE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT... OCCASIONALLY 20 KT OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH SEAS 2- 4 FT. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ALONG ROUGHLY 77W THIS AFTERNOON...WILL PASS THROUGH THE FL STRAITS ON SUN NIGHT-MON...AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON NIGHT-TUE...THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE SW GULF ALONG 89W AT SUNRISE TUE...93W AT SUNRISE WED WITH A LOW PRES DEVELOPING NEAR 19N93W. THE LOW SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE W WITH A LOW PRES NEAR 20N95W AT SUNRISE THU...AND NEAR 21N97W SUNRISE FRI. EXPECT MOSTLY 15-20 KT NE-E WINDS ON TUE NIGHT...THEN CYCLONIC 20-30 KT ON WED-THU OVER THE SW GULF. PRECIP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS WATERS S OF 22N EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AND NEAR THE LOW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL PER LATEST GFS SOLUTION THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT THE BROAD WAVE ROUGHLY ALONG 77W ATTM TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS TONIGHT-MON...AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON NIGHT-TUE. NE WINDS AT 15-20 KT IS NOTED WITHIN ABOUT 480 NM W OF WAVE WHILE STRENGTHENING ATLC HIGH PRES SUPPORTS E-SE 15-20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA E OF THE WAVE. AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN ON SUN NIGHT-EARLY TUE THE GRADIENT E OF THE WAVE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...EXCEPT 25-30 KT ALONG NW COAST OF COLOMBIA ON MON NIGHT. SEEMS LIKE GRADIENT TRIES TO RELAX A LITTLE ACROSS FORECAST AREA E OF 70W ON TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BUT A REINFORCING SURGE...PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT BOW IN THE ITCZ ALONG 42W...ARRIVES LATE WED IN THE E CARIBBEAN...AND SHIFTS W ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS ON THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL PER LATEST GFS SOLUTION THE NE EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS ATTM AND WILL REACH THE CAY SAL BANK AREA SUN...AND PASS THROUGH GULF APPROACH TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON MON-MON NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S ACROSS THE AREA N OF 27N W OF 70W WITH CONVECTION CURRENTLY FLARING ALONG A LINE FROM 31N62W TO 25N72W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NE FL WILL REACH POSITION FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM 31N59W TO ALONG 27N BETWEEN 66W-77W MON NIGHT-TUE WITH REMNANTS OF THE FRONT LIFTING N ON TUE-WED AS A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA INCREASING THE EASTERLIES TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 24N ON TUE-THU. THE S-SW FLOW N OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT LATE MON NIGHT AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BRIEFLY TUE NIGHT THEN THE GRADIENT RELAXES SUPPORTING 10-15 KT AGAIN LATE WED-THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.