000 AGXX40 KNHC 150753 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 353 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED S INTO N GULF COASTAL WATERS FROM MOUTH OF MS MEANDERING E TO N FL...WITH ACTIVE CNVTN ALONG FRONT AS HIGH PRES S OF FRONT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODEST LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY. FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING N AND INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND LLVL FLOW VEERS SE AND ADVECTS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE N AND NW. OTHERWISE...NARROW RIDGE TO PREVAIL NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG 26-27N WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. SEAS CURRENTLY 3 FT OR LESS AND IN LINE WITH WW3. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W ATTM ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB TO CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY W-NW NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOW-MID LVL SPEED MAX MOVING ACROSS YUCATAN AND INTO WATERS OF BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH WAVE AXIS MOVING ACROSS YUCATAN MON AND MON NIGHT...SPREADING MOISTURE AND CNVTN NW ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO SE PORTIONS OF GULF EARLY TUE. WAVE THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT NW ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE SPREADING MOISTURE AND WEATHER N TO 24N BEHIND IT. GFS HAS BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENISIS AND HAVE BLENDED MODELS TO SHOW 20-25 KT WIND MAX NE OF WAVE-SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVING W-NW ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE-THU AND INLAND ACROSS MEXICO FRI. THIS FORECAST A BIT FASTER THAN INHERITED FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION TODAY AS I HAVE FOLLOWED H7 TROUGH AXIS FOR WAVE PLACEMENT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS TROPICAL WAVE MOVING QUICKLY W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB ALONG ABOUT 76W ATTM...WITH MOISTURE MOSTLY CONFINED E OF WAVE AXIS. WE SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOW ON SFC ANALYSIS WITH WAVE AXIS PAST 24 HR. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY SUGGESTS SLIGHT SFC REFLECTION OF WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO MEAN TROFFING ACROSS CARIB ALONG 78-80W. BEHIND THIS WAVE...A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE LENGTH PERTURBATIONS HAVE MOVED OFF OF AFRICA AND ACROSS ATLC...WITH FIRST CURRENTLY ALONG 67W S OF 16N AND ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND SURGE...AND 20-25 KT AT SFC INVOF OF THIS WAVE AS DEPICTED BY RECENT ASCAT PASS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS WAVE TO RIDE W-NW UP BACKSIDE OF LEADING TROPICAL WAVE AND MOVE ACROSS TOP OF WAVE ACROSS NW CARIB LATE SUN THROUGH EARLY MON AND THEN INTO YUCATAN MON AND MON NIGHT. ATLC RIDGE TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT AREA OF SAL BEHIND THIS SECOND WAVE...DAMMING UP AGAINST NE TO SW ALIGNED MID LEVEL TROUGHING THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO YUCATAN SUN-MON. HIGH PRES TO MOVE INTO SW N ATLC LATE SUN BEHIND WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN...FRESHENING THE TRADES WITH AND BEHIND THESE TWO WAVES...WITH GFS SUGGESTING 30 KT TRADES RETURNING OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT. THE NEXT LOW AMP WAVES ARE NOW ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC...AT 46W AND 36W RESPECTIVELY...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS S PORTIONS OF TROPICAL ATLC SUN THROUGH TUE. THESE WAVES WILL INDUCE AN UNDULATION ALONG THE ITCZ AND LIFT THE ITCZ INTO THE WINDWARDS MON-TUE...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS AND LINES OF TSTMS GENERALLY S OF 14N. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NW PORTIONS PAST 24 HOURS WITH CLUSTERS OF DEEP CNVTN CONTINUING ALONG BOTH THE LEADING EDGE OF BOUNDARY...AND E OF SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S INTO THE AREA ALONG 75W THEN SW THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E-SE ALONG N PORTIONS WHILE WEAKENING NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH W PORTION LIFTING N AND WEAK WARM FRONT BY 72 HRS. SW WINDS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF FRONT TODAY TO 20-25 KT N OF 27N WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT. THESE ASSOCIATED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS TO SHIFT NE AND OUT OF OFFSHORE AREA BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRES SHIFTING E INTO SW N ATLC WATERS. BROAD MEAN TROUGHING ALONG 72-73W DURING THE TIME WILL PREVENT TRADES FROM INCREASING ACROSS S PORTIONS THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE TROUGHING DISSIPATES AND RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS ENTIRE ATLC REGION...AND E-SE TRADES INCREASE TO 20 KT WITH POCKETS TO 25 KT FROM SE BAHAMAS E THROUGH NE CARIB. MINOR WAVE ACROSS SE CARIB ATTM ALONG 67W TO SPREAD MOISTURE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL SE WIND SURGE ACROSS NE CARIB AND PUERTO RICO TODAY THEN INTO SE PORTIONS TONIGHT AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING ACROSS TURKS AND CAICOS AND FAR SE BAHAMAS MON NIGHT- TUE. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND WAVE ENERGY TO FOLLOW SAME PATH TUE THROUGH WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.