000
AGXX40 KNHC 130625
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
225 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF. WW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 27N87W WHERE LIGHT
WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT...WITH MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND
2-4 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE NE AND
N CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CLIP THE NE GULF SAT MORNING...STALLING FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
LOUISIANA BY LATE SAT WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE. HIGH PRES WILL
REBUILD IN FROM THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT SUN...WITH A NEW BUBBLE
HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE NE GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA LATE SUN...REACHING THE S CENTRAL GULF BY LATE MON.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                      
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF. WW3 DAY 1-3...THEN TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE DAY 1-3...THEN MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE DAY 4-5

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W IN THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION W OF 78W. THIS
WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA LATER THIS
MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES HAVE BECOME CONFINED TO THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST AS RIDGING N OF THE
AREA HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT TO THE E. TRADE WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE ATLC WATERS TODAY WITH AS THE HIGH MENTIONED
ABOVE SHIFTS TO THE E...WITH ASSOCIATED SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING TO
8-10 FT IN NE SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. 

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE TROPICAL N ATLC ALONG
55W/56W. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH
THE DAY...THEN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI...INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN...THEN FINALLY THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN
APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT
WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE WITH THE GFS INDICATING
STRONGER WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT SEAS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. GIVEN
THAT A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WAS USED FOR THE WINDS...THE NEW
EXPERIMENTAL TAFB NWPS WAVE GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR DAY 4-5.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST 
GFS AND ECMWF. WW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE ALONG 27N WILL WEAKEN WHILE SLIDING E-SE TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION FRI. THE FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM 31N76W TO CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA FRI EVENING...
FROM JUST SE OF BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SAT EVENING...
DISSIPATING ALONG 27N BY SUN EVENING. NEW HIGH PRES FROM THE
N CENTRAL ATLC WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE NE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALSO...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CLIP THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
MOVING INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN SEA HEIGHTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...EXCEPT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29.5N
WHERE FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO THE WEAKENING OF
THE BOUNDARY.

$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.