000
AGXX40 KNHC 120728
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
328 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST GFS 
AND ECMWF WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE...IS IN
THE FAR SE GULF WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.
1019 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N87W. LIGHT
WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE NE GULF...WITH MODERATE E-SE WINDS
ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT 3-4 FT IN THE
NW GULF. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT S TO NEAR 26N86W BY THU
MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THAT FRONT
WILL CLIP THE NE GULF WATERS FRI WHERE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRES
REBUILDS IN FROM THE NE SUN WITH MODERATE E-SE FLOW RETURNING
ACROSS THE GULF BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                      
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST 
GFS AND ECMWF WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE HAS EXITED WESTERN S
AMERICA AND IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. THIS WAVE WILL APPROACH
CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT (WED NIGHT)...DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
INLAND THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUE IN
THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH ELSEWHERE AS HIGH
PRES REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE N AND NE OF THE BASIN. SEAS OF
8-10 FT ARE OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH
4-7 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE 7-9 FT
SEAS ARE PRESENT AT THE TAIL END OF A FRESH NE WIND FETCH ZONE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AND CONDITIONS IS FORECAST THROUGH
THU NIGHT. BY FRI...THE HIGH N-NE OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND
SLIDE EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF OF THE SE U.S. COAST.
THIS WILL SLACKEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY. NEW HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
IN N OF THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUN...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE AGAIN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL
N ATLC WATERS ON THU...THEN THE E CARIBBEAN FRI...AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST 
GFS AND ECMWF WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RIDGING EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N48W TO
THE W-SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING ASCAT AND
OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE PRIMARILY MODERATE E-SE WINDS
ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH S OF 22N. THE
LATEST BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW 1-3 FT SEAS W OF THE
BAHAMAS....AND 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THU. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER BY
THU NIGHT...PUSHING THE HIGH AND ATTENDANT RIDGING TO THE E.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF
29N/30N THU NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N79W TO 30N81W FRI
MORNING...FROM 31N71W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA SAT MORNING...AND THEN
FROM 30N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUN MORNING WHILE WEAKENING.
NEW HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ONLY MODERATE WINDS ARE FORECAST
BEHIND THE FRONT AT THIS TIME...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.