000
AGXX40 KNHC 111815
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST GFS 
AND ECMWF WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NE HALF OF THE 
BASIN THROUGH SUN. A RESULT THERE WILL BE A LONG DURATION OF 
LIGHT WINDS...ALLOWING SEAS TO REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS IN THE NE 
GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF 2-3 FT 
SEAS NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH 10-15 KT W 
WINDS N OF THE HIGH CENTER. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF INCLUDING 
PORTIONS W OF 90W CAN EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 2-
3 FT SEAS THROUGH SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                      
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST 
GFS AND ECMWF WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 1510 UTC SHOWS 25 KT WINDS NEAR THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W. THE 
WAVE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SW 
CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED AS IT MOVES FURTHER WEST. A TROPICAL WAVE 
ALONG 44W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY WED NIGHT. ANOTHER 
TROPICAL WAVE INDICATED IN GFS AND ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE EXPECTED 
TO REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI. THE MODELS SHOW THE WAVE 
INTENSIFYING BETWEEN 50W AND 60W AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD 
ISLANDS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THE 
CENTRAL ATLC WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT N OF THE ITCZ AND 
ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE E OF 55W...AND ALSO BUILD NE SWELL 
ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST 
GFS AND ECMWF WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANT OF A WAVE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE 
BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER 
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...LINK UP WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER 
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH THU...THEN WEAKEN 
FRI. HIGH PRES RIDGE FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL WEAKEN 
AND SLIDE E-SE THU AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO 
THE NW PORTION FRI. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND EXTEND FROM 31N70W 
TO S FLORIDA SAT...AND FROM 31N63W TO 27N69W AS A DISSIPATING 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS E-NE WINDS INCREASING 
TO 15 KT IN NW PORTION THIS WEEKEND...AND LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS 
ELSEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT.

$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.