000
AGXX40 KNHC 110701
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
301 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST GFS 
AND ECMWF WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF FROM 1018 MB HIGH PRES IN THE NE
GULF NEAR 28N83W. SOUTHEASTERLY MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE HIGH CENTER. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT IN THE NE HALF OF THE GULF AND
2-4 FT IN THE SW HALF. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT TO A POSITION
NEAR 26N88W BY THU MORNING WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SAT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE NE GULF WATERS SAT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                      
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST 
GFS AND ECMWF WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN EARLY MORNING ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED WINDS OF UP
TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT HAS
TIGHTENED AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING WESTERN
VENEZUELA. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. OTHERWISE
...RIDGING WILL PERSIST N OF THE BASIN THROUGH MOST OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD SUPPORTING MAINLY FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE INCLUDING
THE TROPICAL N ATLC. EXPECT DIURNAL VARIABILITY OF WINDS IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS TO 20 KT LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH THU. THE RIDGE N
OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT MOVING OFF THE S.E. COAST PUSHES THE RIDGE EASTWARD. THIS
WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN TRADES IN THE CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT. A WEAKER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST 
GFS AND ECMWF WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A DECAYING TROPICAL WAVE HAS PUSHED INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WITH ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM THE
WESTERN BAHAMAS TO THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA. MODERATE E-SE WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...LOCALLY FRESH S OF 22N. SEAS OF 4-7
FT ARE E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. OVERALL...A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGH WED...WEAKENING AND SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
THU AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA ON FRI. THE FRONT WILL PUSH E-SE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS
SAT WITH FRESH SW WINDS N OF 28N AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE SAT
WHILE WEAKENING.

$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.