000 AGXX40 KNHC 080643 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 243 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF. ATLC RIDGING IS EDGING INTO THE SE GULF FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS S OF 27N ALONG 91W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS BEING ADVECTED TO THE NE-E BY UPPER LEVEL SW WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO BREACH THE GULF WATERS...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE LITTLE FORWARD PROGRESS. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH 2-4 FT SEAS. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THIS WEEKEND WITH MODERATE E-SE WINDS DOMINATING THE BASIN THROUGH TODAY... INCREASING TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY. A NEW HIGH WILL FORM IN THE NE GULF MON MORNING...SLIDING TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY MID WEEK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED. SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL BE IN THE NE GULF... WITH 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEAS ARE MAINLY 3-6 FT...EXCEPT 7-10 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEN PRIMARILY 20 KT WINDS WILL SET UP ACROSS THAT AREA. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS TO BE FURTHER TO THE W THEN EARLIER THINKING...NOW ALONG 59W AS INDICATED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES...AND A WIND SHIFT AT A METEO FRANCE BUOY NEAR 16N57W WHICH IS NOW SE. A POCKET OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IS JUST W OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE...WITH A SURROUNDING LARGER AREA OF 8-10 FT SE SWELL. THE WAVE WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN OUT AS IT CONTINUES TO THE NW AROUND 15 KT...MOVING INTO THE SW N ATLC LATER TODAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF 10N ALONG 46W. THIS WAVE WILL SKIRT THE FAR SOUTHERN OFFSHORE ZONE THIS WEEKEND... MOVING INTO S AMERICA THEREAFTER. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF. A SMALL REMAINING AREA OF 8-10 FT SE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH LONG DEPARTED ANDREA WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...RIDGING DOMINATES THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM N CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES. MODERATE E-SE WINDS PREVAIL...EXCEPT FRESH WINDS S OF 22N...ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE SE PORTION FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATER TODAY WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8-10 FT SEAS ACCOMPANYING IT. THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT CONTINUES TO W-NW WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE SAT NIGHT...AND THEN ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE SUN NIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF THE WAVE...IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH...WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE MON NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.