000 AGXX40 KNHC 071812 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 212 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF. TROPICAL STORM ANDREA CONTINUES TO MOVE NE AND AWAY FROM THE GULF REGION WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING OVER THE FAR NE GULF IN ITS WAKE. CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE ONLY 10-15 KT OVER THE NE GULF WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FT BASED ON BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. A 100 NM WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF ANDREA...IS STILL NOTED OVER THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE FORT MYERS AREA TO NEAR 23N86W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO SOUTH TEXAS ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS. EXPECT WINDS TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE WEST- CENTRAL WATERS LATE SAT INTO SUN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS. SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY 2-4 FT...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT IN THE AREA OF 20 KT WINDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEAS ARE MAINLY 3-6 FT...EXCEPT 7-10 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEN PRIMARILY 20 KT WINDS WILL SET UP ACROSS THAT AREA. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE OFFSHORE WATERS...CURRENTLY NEAR 52W. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS DIMINISHED AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR IS NOW IMPACTING THE WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG IT. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS STILL NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N52W. HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS ONLY SHOWS THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. NEVERTHELESS... FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE W-NW AROUND 15 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT INTO LATE SAT...THEN THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH MON AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. TROPICAL STORM ANDREA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OFFSHORE WATERS ZONE AMZ111. S TO SW WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT ARE STILL AFFECTING THIS ZONE BUT THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY. AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS TO 11 FT ACROSS ZONE AMZ111 WITH SEAS TO 13 FT OFF THE COASTS OF GA/SC. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGH TUE WITH FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE E WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE SE PART BY SUN. INITIALLY 20-25 KT WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE BASIN...WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.