000 AGXX40 KNHC 070633 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 233 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED. MWW3 BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. TROPICAL STORM ANDREA CONTINUES TO MOVE NE OF THE AREA OVER SE GEORGIA...APPROACHING THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOW COUNTRY. ALL ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS NOW LONG GONE FROM THE GULF WATERS... AND WINDS ARE ONLY 10-15 KT OVER THE NE GULF CLOSEST TO THE CIRCULATION. SOME LINGERING 6-8 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDREA ARE IN THE NE GULF...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...BROAD TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE SE GULF IN THE WAKE OF ANDREA. A COLD FRONT IS SNEAKING INTO THE FAR NW AND N CENTRAL GULF WATERS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF IT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 26N/27N LATE SAT INTO SUN...HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUE WITH MAINLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS IN PLACE. SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY 1-3 FT IN THE E GULF...AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED. MWW3 BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEAS ARE MAINLY 3-6 FT...EXCEPT 7-10 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEN PRIMARILY 20 KT WILL SET UP ACROSS THAT AREA. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE OFFSHORE WATERS...CURRENTLY NEAR 50W. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS DIMINISHED AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR IS NOW IMPACTING THE WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG IT. NEVERTHELESS... FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AS IT CONTINUES TO THE W-NW AROUND 15 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER THE SHEAR. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED. MWW3 BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO OFFSHORE WATERS ZONE AMZ111...CURRENTLY OVER SE GEORGIA AND APPROACHING THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOW COUNTRY. A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TO MOVE N-NE AROUND ANDREA...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS BAND LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM E OF THE CENTER. AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS JUST MISSED THE NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC BASIN...HOWEVER BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING 30-35 KT WINDS AND 8-11 FT SEAS NEAR 60 NM OFFSHORE OF NE FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA. ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE...ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE REGION BY LATE FRI NIGHT. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...EXTENDING FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH 5-7 FT SEAS. THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL IMPACT ZONE AMZ127 NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BEGINNING FRI NIGHT...THEN ALL THE ZONES E OF 70W SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...MOVING W OF 70W SUN NIGHT INTO MON WHILE WEAKENING. INITIALLY 20-25 KT WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE BASIN...WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD WHILE ENCOUNTERING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...TROPICAL STORM WARNING. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.