000 AGXX40 KNHC 061814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 214 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2013 TROPICAL SEASON...NAMED ANDREA...FORMED YESTERDAY IN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AT 06/1500 UTC...ANDREA WAS OVER THE NE PART OF THE GULF WATERS NEAR 28.2N 84.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT WITH MAXIMUM SEAS NEAR 15 FT. ANDREA WILL TRACK NE REACHING THE COAST OF THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY...AND THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEEDING BAND WITH STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM AND CROSSES THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF FROM ABOUT THE FORT MYERS AREA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. RAIN SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF E OF 87W AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS TROPICAL STORM ANDREA MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. OTHERWISE...LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INCLUDING SATELLITE DERIVED SURFACE WINDS...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS COVERING THE EASTERN GULF WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. OUTSIDE OF ANDREA...SEAS RANGE FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE SE GULF...5-8 FT OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF...2-4 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF...EXCEPT 1-3 FT OVER THE SW GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE FAR N GULF ON SAT AND WILL STALL OVER THIS AREA AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE. LATEST SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS RANGE FROM 8-10 FT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 5-7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...THEN MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN LATE SAT THROUGH SUN. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO HAVE A WELL DEFINED SURFACE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND THE WAVE WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE WITH SEAS IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST REGION PRODUCING MAINLY AN E TO SE WIND FLOW. LATEST OBSERVATIONS DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART. SEAS RANGE FROM 3-5 FT OVER THE NRN PORTION...AND 4-6 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS...WHILE LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT PREVAILS W OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS ARE ON INCREASE NEAR SE FLORIDA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRI THEN ONCE AGAIN DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO TROPICAL STORM ANDREA MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM ANDREA CLIPS THE NW PART OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA WILL DECREASE FRI AND SAT AS ANDREA MOVES FURTHER N AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.