000 AGXX40 KNHC 052334 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 234 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013 UPDATED FOR TS WARNINGS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE GFS. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO POSITION AND INTENSITY OF FORECAST SURFACE LOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS FROM 29N87W TO A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 25N89W TO 20N91W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER...PARTICULARLY S OF 27N AND E OF 87W...WITH POCKETS OF STRONG WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF ACTIVE CONVECTION...OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS ARE BUILDING TO NEAR 12 FT IN THE AREA OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS WITH SEAS OF 3-6 FT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...AND 1-3 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE GENERAL FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME WITH THE TROUGH/ LOW PREVAILING OVER THE GULF WATERS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SE UNITED STATES. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW BEFORE IT SHIFTS NE OF THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THE INTERACTION OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO EITHER A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM DOES DEVELOP...THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CAN EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR GALE LATE TOMORROW. IN ADDITION...RAIN SQUALLS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE GFS. OTHERWISE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW IN THE GULF AND RESULTING WINDS AND SEAS. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND FAR NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS RANGE FROM 8-10 FT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH SEAS 6-8 FT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE SEAS ARE 5-7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL DECREASE ON THU AS THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS FURTHER TO THE NORTH. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TODAY...AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS BY THU. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...THEN MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN LATE SAT THROUGH SUN. THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR 20-25 KT WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE THAT IS PRETTY WELL DEFINED FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE GFS. OTHERWISE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THU AND FRI OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS ROUGHLY ALONG 28N. LATEST OBSERVATIONS DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART. SEAS RANGE FROM 3-5 FT OVER THE NRN PORTION...AND 4-7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS ...WHILE LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT CONTINUING W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRI THEN ONCE AGAIN DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THU IN RESPONSE TO THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. EITHER WAY...INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WITH RAIN SQUALLS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA THU THROUGH FRI WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING ON SAT. THE FORECAST SHOWS INCREASING WINDS TO 20-30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT OVER THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 28N W OF 75W THU AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI MORNING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...TS WARNING. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...TS WARNING. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...TS WARNING. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR/NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.