000 AGXX40 KNHC 050756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 356 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO POSITION AND INTENSITY OF FORECAST SURFACE LOW. BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS WITH 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 23N89W. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SATELLITE SURFACE WINDS...SHIPS...AND BUOYS DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS...WITH POCKETS OF STRONG WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF ACTIVE CONVECTION...OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 709 FT RANGE OVER THE SE GULF...4-6 FT OVER THE NE GULF...3-6 FT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...AND 1-3 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE GENERAL FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME WITH THE TROUGH/LOW PREVAILING OVER THE GULF WATERS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SE UNITED STATES. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW BEFORE IT SHIFTS NE OF THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THE INTERACTION OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO EITHER A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM DOES DEVELOP...THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CAN EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR GALE LATE TOMORROW. IN ADDITION...RAIN SQUALLS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...PARTS OF CUBA...AND PARTS OF FLORIDA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW IN THE GULF AND RESULTING WINDS AND SEAS. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND FAR NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS RANGE FROM 8-10 FT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH SEAS 6-8 FT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE SEAS ARE 5-7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL DECREASE ON THU AS THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS FURTHER TO THE NORTH. OTHER THAN WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ROUGHLY THE SAME OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT DAY OF SO. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY THIS WEEKEND...AND SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THU AND FRI OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS ROUGHLY ALONG 28N. LATEST OBSERVATIONS DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART. SEAS RANGE FROM 3-5 FT OVER THE NRN PORTION...AND 4-7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS ...WHILE LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT CONTINUING W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRI THEN ONCE AGAIN DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THU MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. EITHER WAY...INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WITH RAIN SQUALLS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA THU THROUGH FRI WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING ON SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.