000 AGXX40 KNHC 040730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LOW TO AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO POSITION AND INTENSITY OF FORECAST SURFACE LOW. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH GFS AND ECMWF. RIDGE OF HIGH PRES HAS SHIFTED E OF THE AREA. THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. DISORGANIZED ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH SQUALLS REMAINS EAST OF THE TROUGH DUE TO STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN EAST OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SATELLITE DERIVED SURFACE WINDS...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH POCKETS OF LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE NE GULF...6-8 FT OVER THE SE GULF...AND 1-3 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. THE GENERAL FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME WITH THE TROUGH PREVAILING AND EXPECTED FORMATION OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TROUGH AND LOW WILL SHIFT NE AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SE UNITED STATES LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THE SURFACE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE AREA FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF ANY LOW WHICH MAY FORM. THE GFS AND UKMET CONTINUE MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE WINDS AND RESULTING SEAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE STRENGTHENING OF ANY SURFACE FEATURE WITH INTERACTION OF DIGGING TROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK. THUS HAVE BLENDED MORE OF THE GFS SOLUTION WITH THE ECMWF AND OFFICIAL FORECAST THIS CYCLE. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT RAINY AND SQUALLY CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN RELATED TO CONVECTION AND INDUCED GRADIENT TO THE SE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH...AND ITS ASSOCIATED FORECAST LOW. A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND FAR NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS RANGE FROM 8-10 FT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS 6-8 FT OVER THE WRN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND FAR NW CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE SEAS ARE 5-7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ...EXCEPT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. THE AREA OF HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHICH WILL DIMINISH WINDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR NEAR 8 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH OCCASIONAL SQUALLS AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS AT OR NEAR 8 FT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH THU DUE TO THE TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN DECREASE FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTHWARD. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING TODAY. DIFFLUENT SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH INTO TROUGHING ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL HELP TO DISPERSE THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WED. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE FAR N PART OF THE...WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISSIPATED. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS OVER THE N PART OF THE AREA...AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS RANGE FROM 3-5 FT OVER THE N PART OF THE AREA AND 4-7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS...WHILE SEAS OF 1-3 FT PREVAIL W OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THU. AS THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE TO THE WINDS AND SEAS OVER THIS AREA BY FRIDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.