000 AGXX40 KNHC 021848 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 248 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF MON...THEN LOW TO AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO POSITION AND INTENSITY OF FORECAST SURFACE LOW...CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE TOWARD ECMWF TRACK BUT SLOWER MOTION OF THE GFS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES PREVAILS OVER THE FAR N GULF OF MEXICO. WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NOTED WITH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 19N95W AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WITH MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS RANGE FROM 1-3 FT OVER THE NE GULF AND SW GULF WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. THE RIDGE IS STILL ON TRACK TO RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH TUE. THIS PROCESS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR 28N93W LATE MON...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET ARE SUGGESTING A GENERAL TRACK TO THE NE OF THE BROAD LOW PRES AREA AFTER ABOUT MON. THE 12 UTC GFS TENDS TO LATCH ON TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE CONVECTION FEEDBACK FROM CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF AND PULL IT TO THE N TUE AND WED. THE GFS STILL APPEARS FASTER THEN THE ECMWF THROUGH WED NIGHT...BUT IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE 10M WINDS. THE ECMWF BECOMES FASTER IN TAKING THE LOW NE ACROSS W CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THU. EVENING. AT THAT TIME... THE GFS STILL HOLDS BACK THE LOW OVER THE NE GULF INTO FRI. AFTERNOON. IT THEN MOVES THE LOW INLAND N FLORIDA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THE UKMET IS FARTHER TO THE W THAN THE REST OF GUIDANCE ENVELOP DURING THE PERIOD...WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL IS CONSISTENTLY TO STRONG IN DEVELOPING THE LOW...BUT VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS IN TRACK THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE ACCELERATING THE LOW IN A NNE DIRECTION MOVING IT INLAND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THU AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY...THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE KEEPS THE LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH DAY 5 (FRI)...WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE TAKES IT NE TO ACROSS N FLORIDA FRI NIGHT. IN ANY EVENT AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE SE GULF WILL AND ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SCATTERED TOP NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME WHICH MAY BE ATTENDED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS RANGE FROM 7-9 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...5-7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. THE AREA OF HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THE BEGINNING TUE. THIS WILL DIMINISH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR NEAR 8 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC THIS EVENING. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE AS THE HOSTILE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WILL WEAKEN THE WAVE...AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE IT ON WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA ALONG 33N...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N72W TO 24N76W AS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THAT VICINITY. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE ANIMATIONS REVEAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVERING THE AREA S OF 26N W OF 72W... AND E OF 72W. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA...AND GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS RANGE FROM 3-5 FT OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA AND 4-6 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS WHILE SEAS 1-3 FT PREVAIL W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD TUE INTO WED. THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE BAHAMAS WILL LIFT NW THROUGH TUE AND N WED AND THU WHILE WEAKENING. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE WILL HELP MAINTAIN FRESH WINDS ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH...BUT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY LATE THU AS THE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NWD. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR PORTION LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE THEN BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THU...AND BECOME DIFFUSE LATE THU INTO FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.