000
AGXX40 KNHC 020650
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
250 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO POSITION
AND INTENSITY OF FORECAST SURFACE LOW...CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE
TOWARD ECMWF.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE FAR N GULF OF MEXICO.
WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE
GULF WITH MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS RANGE FROM 1-3 FT OVER THE NE GULF AND
SW GULF WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST WATERS. 

THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD TODAY INTO MON ENABLING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL REACH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR 28N93W LATE MON...THEN
DRIFT N AND INLAND TUE AND WED.

THERE REMAINS LARGE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. EACH MODEL DEPICTS A GENERAL NE TREND IN THE TRACK OF THE
LOW WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MUCH FASTER IN LIFTING THIS
FORECAST SURFACE LOW NEWD COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE ALSO MUCH STRONGER WITH THE LOW THAN THE
ECMWF AND UKMET. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY THERE REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THIS EVOLUTION WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WATERS. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...                                              
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDING OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS WHERE
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS RANGE FROM 7-9 FT OVER THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...5-7 FT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE SEAS
ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE.
 
THE AREA OF HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL DIMINISH
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR NEAR 8 FT OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TODAY. THE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE AS THE HOSTILE SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL WEAKEN THE WAVE...AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE IT ON
WED.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA ALONG 33N. LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE PART OF THE
AREA...AND GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS RANGE FROM 3-5 FT OVER THE NE PART OF THE
AREA AND 4-6 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA E OF THE
BAHAMAS WHILE SEAS 1-3 FT PREVAIL W OF THE BAHAMAS. 

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY THIS WEEK WHILE A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH E
OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY AND MON. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT N THROUGH THU.
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE CENTRAL ATLC
RIDGE WILL HELP MAINTAIN FRESH WINDS ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH
...BUT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY LATE THU AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
FURTHER NWD.

$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.