000 AGXX40 KNHC 011828 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 228 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES IN LATEST MODEL RUNS...AM LEANING WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE TO A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH MORE WEIGHT TOWARDS THE ECMWF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO POSITION AND INTENSITY OF FORECAST SURFACE LOW. FOR 48-72 HRS WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD ECMWF POSITION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE FAR N GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE REMNANTS OF FORMER PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE BARBARA HAVE DISSIPATED WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE SW GULF WATERS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH WIND FLOW NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEAS OVER THE GULF WATERS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. THE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE IT RETREATS EASTWARD SUN INTO MON. THE RETREATING RIDGE WILL ENABLE A WEAK COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS LATE SUN. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR 28N93W LATE MON...THEN DRIFT N AND INLAND TUE AND WED. THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF FORMER EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE BARBARA WILL LINGER OVER THE SW GULF WATERS WHERE IT WILL COME INTO PHASE WITH A MID LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE TROUGH AND ENABLE FOR A SURFACE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF WATERS SUN. THERE REMAINS LARGE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...BUT EACH MODEL DEPICTS A GENERAL NE MOTION THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE STILL MUCH FASTER IN LIFTING THIS FORECAST SURFACE LOW NEWD COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND UKMET. BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THIS EVOLUTION WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED IN THE GRIDS IN THE LOW CONFIDENCE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THERE ALSO EXISTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SURFACE LOW THAT DOES FORM MAY INITIALLY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE IT BEGINS A MOTION TO THE NE. IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST LOW IMPACTING WINDS AND SEAS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF...EXPECT A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW/TROUGH WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AFFECTED WATERS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF DURING THE MID TO LONG TERM PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS THAT WILL PROVIDE... WHEN APPLICABLE...ANY PROBABILITY THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. USED MWW3 GRIDDED WAVEWATCH SINCE IT BETTER HANDLES WAVES IN SE FETCH OVER NW CARIBBEAN PORTION. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BUOYS 42058 AT 15N75W IS REPORTING E WINDS AT 15 KT. LIKEWISE FOR BUOY 42059 AT 15N67W. BUOYS 42056 AND 42057 IN THE NW CARIBBEAN PORTION AT 20N85W AND 17N84.5W ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING E-SE WINDS OF 17 KT ALSO. SIMILAR WINDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS INFERRED FROM THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. IN THE THE SW CARIBBEAN SECTION LIGHT TO GENTLE MAINLY SE-S WINDS PREVAIL. THE FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAVE DIMINISHED TO SE AT 20 KT. ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES...A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING ALONG WITH THE BUOY LOCATED THERE HAVE...AND PRESENTLY REVEALING NE WINDS OF 20 KT. THE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BUOYS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS INDICATE SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-9 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE FAR WRN CARIBBEAN...AND OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 18N. ELSEWHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE PRIMARILY IN A NE SWELL. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DIMINISH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR NEAR 8 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ON SUN MORNING. THE GFS MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE AS THE HOSTILE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WILL WEAKEN THE WAVE...AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE IT ON WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. USED MWW3 WAVE GUIDANCE WITH JUST MINOR UPWARDS ADJUSTMENTS FOR AREA BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE N OF THE AREA ALONG 33N. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA...AND GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 4-5 FT NE AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS MOST OF THE AREA W AND SW OF THE BAHAMAS. A SMALL POCKET OF 5-7 FT SEAS IS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. THESE VALUES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NOAA GRIDDED WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...EXCEPT AS NOTED ABOVE WITH AREA BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. THE RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE BAHAMAS SUN AND MON. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NNE THROUGH THU. A SLIGHTER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE WILL HELP MAINTAIN FRESH WINDS ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH ...BUT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING DURING LATE THU AS THE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NEWD. THE ABOVE MENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION LATE MON...THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THU WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING SEWD BEHIND IT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...BUT THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS RELATED TO THE FRONT WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AS IT STALLS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.