000 AGXX40 KNHC 311857 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS THROUGH SUN...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH SAME BLEND MON THROUGH WED. USED MWW3 WAVE GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT AS IT SEEMS TO BETTER HANDLE THE FETCH OF HIGHER SEAS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE SE GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL SAT THROUGH MON. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE PARTIAL REMNANTS OF FORMER PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE BARBARA ANALYZED AS A TROUGH IN THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY CAMPECHE ROUGHLY ALONG 95W S OF 21N...WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF. LATEST SATELLITE...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT RANGE...WITH LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE EXTREME ERN PART OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE IT RETREATS EASTWARD SUN INTO MON. THE RETREATING RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAK COLD TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY CONDUCIVE UPPER SUPPORT...THE FRONT WILL ONLY SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD REACHING TO NEAR THE AREA OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO 28N93W...AND BECOME STATIONARY TO THE FAR WESTERN GULF MON. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT JUST SLIDES E ACROSS THE NE GULF AREA TUE AND WED. THE PARTIAL SURFACE REMNANTS OF BARBARA WILL DISSIPATE WHILE THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF BARBARA WILL LINGER OVER THE SW GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COME INTO PHASE WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH TO STRENGTHEN SOME THROUGH SUN WITH A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION BECOMING DISCERNIBLE AT THE SURFACE. MODELS OVERALL DEPICT THIS FEATURE AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEPICT SUCH FEATURE AS A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH ON THE 48 AND 72 HR MANUAL GRAPHICS. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH AT LEAST SUN...THEN PERHAPS INCREASE IN FORECAST MOTION IN A NE DIRECTION THROUGH DAY 5 IF IS INFLUENCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SWINGS INTO THE NW AND N CENTRAL. BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL GO WITH FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER SUN...SINCE WHATEVER EVOLUTION TRANSPIRES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A NOTICEABLE AFFECT ON WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS AFTER DAY 2. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC GFS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE PERSISTENT FRESH E-SE FETCH AS BEING REPORTED BY BUOY 42058 AT 15N75W...AND AS NOTED IN A MORNING ALTIMETER PASS. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR 3-5 FT IN THE NE AND FAR E SECTIONS. SEAS ARE ABOUT 7-10 FT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...AND 4-6 FT IN THE NRN PORTION OF THOSE SAME WATERS. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY SUN AS IT SLIDES E...THEN BUILD SOME SW TOWARDS THE NRN TROPICAL N ATLC AND NE CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE SAT AND SUN...THEN INCREASE AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SEA DURING MON AND INTO WED. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SEAS WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 8-9 FT IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED...AND TO 8 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ALSO THROUGH THE PERIOD AFTER SAT THERE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC GFS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DAYS 3-5 WITH WINDS RELATED TO TROUGH ENE OF THE BAHAMAS. THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST N OF THE AREA ALONG 33N. THE 1534 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED A SWATH OF E WINDS OF 20 KT FROM OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS N TO 29N AND W OF 76W. ELSEWHERE ASCAT AND BUOY DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS N OF 25N...AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 25N. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGES OF 4-5 FT EXCEPT FOR 6-8 FT IN THE FAR SRN PORTION E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 6-8 FT WITHIN THE AREA OF WINDS NOTED IN THE ASCAT PASS FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS TO 29N AND W OF 76W. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE BAHAMAS SUN AND MON...AND LIFT NNE THROUGH WED. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE SHOULD HELP INCREASE WINDS TO ITS E AROUND THE 20 KT RANGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.