000
AGXX40 KNHC 310700
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE REMNANT LOW OF BARBARA IS IN THE FAR SW GULF WATERS. A SURFACE
RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE FAR N PART OF THE AREA. LATEST
SATELLITE...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE
WITH 2-3 FT SEAS PREVAILING OVER THE WATERS JUST WEST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. 

THE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE IT RETREATS EASTWARD
SUN. THE RETREATING RIDGE WILL ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH
THE GULF WATERS...BUT THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
GULF WATERS BEFORE STALLING. THE SURFACE REMNANTS OF BARBARA WILL
DISSIPATE WHILE THE MIDLEVEL REMNANTS OF BARBARA WILL LINGER OVER
THE SW GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL
COME INTO PHASE WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND. THIS CONSTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE
WILL STRENGTHEN THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND...AND WILL HELP FOR THE CIRCULATION TO BUILD TO THE
SURFACE WITH A SHARP TROUGH...AND PERHAPS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...                                              
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS. LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES COVERING THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEAS
ARE IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN...5-7 FT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN...AND
7-10 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. 

HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL DIMINISH THE STRONG WINDS LEAVING
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE CONTINUED FETCH OF FRESH WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL MAINTAIN SEAS AT OR NEAR
8 FT OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA ALONG 32N. LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS N OF 25N
AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 25N. SEAS RANGE FROM 4-7 FT E OF
THE BAHAMAS...AND 3-5 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. 

THE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL N OF THE AREA THROUGH SUN BEFORE STARTING
TO SHIFT EASTWARD. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP INDUCE A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE BAHAMAS SUN AND MON. WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.