000 AGXX40 KNHC 301844 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT THU MAY 30 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH SUN..WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE NEAR REMNANTS OF BARBARA IN SW GULF. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE EQUAL BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/PREVIOUS FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUE. BLEND OF MWW3 AND PREVIOUS FORECAST USED FOR WAVES WITH APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS IN SW GULF IN RELATION TO REMNANT LOW OF BARBARA. FORMER EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS DOWN GRADED TO A DEPRESSION AT 15 UTC THIS MORNING JUST ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N94W WITH A PRES OF 1004 MB WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT. HIGH PRES RIDGING IS ANALYZED OVER THE NE AND N CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS. HAD TO ADJUST WINDS UPWARD N GRIDS FOR THE W PART OF THE SW GULF THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS FOR SAME AREA ABOUT 4-5 FT ABOVE ALL WAVE GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION MAY BE WEAKENING THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED SO MAY HAVE TO ADJUST WINDS/WAVES ACCORDINGLY IN FUTURE GRIDS. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC GFS WITH PREVIOUS GRIDS THROUGH SUN MAINTAINING A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH RESPECT TO WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS. MODELS AGREES ON TROUGHINESS SETTING UP OVER THE SW GULF SUN TROUGH TUE...WITH THE GFS BEING THE STRONGER OF THE RUNS. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS LATE SUN THROUGH TUE KEEPING WINDS TO LESS THAN 25 KT IN THE S CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE 00Z GFS THROUGH SAT...THE EQUAL BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/PREVIOUS FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUE. BLEND OF MWW3 AND PREVIOUS FORECAST USED FOR WAVE FORECAST. THE 12 UTC GFS LIKE THE 00 UTC GFS RUN INITIALED WELL WITH THE VAST AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN...OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THIS WAS ALSO SEEN IN THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1418 UTC THIS MORNING. BUOY 42058 AT 15N75W IS CURRENTLY REPORTING COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT...AND SO IS BUOY 41040 AT 14.5N53W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN...AND SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE NRN PORTION. WILL FOLLOW THE GFS MODEL AS GUIDANCE FOR TRADES THROUGHOUT INTO SUN. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SITUATION WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BEGINNING SUN...AS THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE STRENGTH OF WINDS OFF THE EASTERN YUCATAN COAST AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WILL CONTINUE TO PREFER A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF...LIKE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY HERE ON SUN AND MON. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MWW3 WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST...BOTH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE 12Z GFS THROUGH LATE SUN...THEN BLENDED THE ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. THE MWW3 WAS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS THROUGH TUE...WITH MANUAL EDITS MADE FOR THE BLENDED WIND FORECAST. HIGH PRES ANCHORED OVER S CAROLINA EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS THE SE U.S. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND GENERALLY LOWER PRES OVER THE SW ATLC...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A POCKET OF NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1414 UTC NICELY CAPTURED THESE WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 69W AND 75W WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THE GFS BOUNDARY WIND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT. WILL RELY ON THE GFS GUIDANCE THROUGH DAY 3. WILL BLEND THE GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR DAYS 4 AND 5 WILL BLEND THE 12 ECMWF WITH GFS AND INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS. MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEATHER WILL PUSH E AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HRS. WITH RESPECT TO NEW TROUGHING DEVELOPING...A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP E OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE REMAINS THE IDLER IN SHOWING THIS FEATURE TO BE STRONGER WITH A POSSIBLE LOW FORMING ON IT. THE 12 UTC ECMWF SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AS COMPARED WITH THE OTHER MODELS AFTER SAT. WON'T TOTALLY DISREGARD THE GFS...HOWEVER...WILL AWAIT FUTURE TRENDS OF IT TO SEE IT BECOMES ALIGNED WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT IT MAY BE THE ONE TO VERIFY IT THE UPPER DYNAMICS COME INTO SUPPORTING CAST FOR SUCH A FEATURE TO DEVELOP. IN ANY EVENT... EXPECT A CONTINUING TREND OF FRESH E-SE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE ZONE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH STRONGER WIND SPEEDS IN AND NEAR TSTM ACTIVITY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.