000 AGXX40 KNHC 300742 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 342 AM EDT THU MAY 30 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT LOW CONFIDENCE NEAR REMNANTS OF BARBARA IN SW GULF. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE EQUAL BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/PREVIOUS FORECAST SUN AND MON. BLEND OF MWW3 AND PREVIOUS FORECAST USED FOR WAVES. NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS LOOK LIKE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR EASTERN PACIFIC T.S. BARBARA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE AS A 25 KT REMNANT LOW IN THE SW GULF ACCORDING TO THE 03Z ADVISORY. THE GRIDS WERE MANUALLY ADJUSTED FOR THIS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE 00Z GFS APPEARS WELL INITIALIZED AND REASONABLE THROUGH SAT. BLENDING IT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEPS WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF TODAY BELOW 25 KT. THE MODELS AGREE ON INCREASING TROUGHING IN THE SW GULF BY SUN...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK E OF THE LOW BY MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER WIND FIELD THAN THE OTHER MODELS AS A RESULT. AFTER WATCHING THE GFS PERFORMANCE THE LAST 7 NIGHTS...HESITANT TO BACK OFF COMPLETELY FROM ITS STRONGER SOLUTIONS EVEN WITH FEEDBACK AS THEY SEEM TO BE INITIALIZING BETTER. A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 00 ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HELPS ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY HERE. THE MWW3 WAS RELIED ON TO ADJUST WAVES WITH MANUAL EDITS MADE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE WIND FIELD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE 00Z GFS THROUGH SAT...THE EQUAL BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/PREVIOUS FORECAST SUN AND MON. BLEND OF MWW3 AND PREVIOUS FORECAST USED FOR WAVE FORECAST. THE LARGER FRESH TO STRONG WIND FIELD OF THE 00Z GFS AGREES WITH OBSERVATIONS BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND SEEMS REASONABLE THROUGH SAT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN. THE GFS IS WEAKER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH EASTERN PACIFIC T.S. BARBARA. AS A RESULT...IT IS LIKELY TOO WEAK WITH ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SHIP 3ETA7 IS REPORTING 7 FT SEAS AND NEARLY TWICE THE WINDS COMPARED TO THE 0326 UTC ASCAT PASS. WITH THE INITIAL CONDITIONS HERE UNCLEAR DUE TO CONFLICTING DATA...PREFER TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND GO WITH A STRONGER VERSION OF THE GFS HERE. BY SUN...DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH THE TROUGHING IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ONCE AGAIN INFLUENCE THE STRENGTH OF WINDS OFF THE EASTERN YUCATAN COAST AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WILL CONTINUE TO PREFER A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF...LIKE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY HERE ON SUN AND MON. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MWW3 WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST...BOTH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE 00Z GFS TODAY THEN MIX IN THE 00Z ECMWF TONIGHT THROUGH SAT THEN PREVIOUS FORECAST/ECMWF BLEND SUN AND MON. THE MWW3 WAS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MON...WITH MANUAL EDITS MADE FOR THE BLENDED WIND FORECAST. AGAIN...THE STRONGER 00Z GFS FORECAST HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE 20-25 KT SHIP REPORTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE 0148 UTC ASCAT PASS THIS MORNING. THE ASCAT PASS SHOWED SE WINDS TO 30 KT BETWEEN NASSAU AND GREAT HARBOR CAY. WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY...AFTER 7 NIGHT OF THINKING THE GFS IS OVERDONE DUE TO THIS FEEDBACK ONLY TO SEE IT BE THE BEST INITIALIZED MODEL THINK ITS TIME TO SIDE WITH ITS STRONGER SOLUTION IN THE SHORT RANGE. A BLEND OF THE GFS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMS ACCEPTABLE EARLY ON AND THEN BLENDING IN THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS PRUDENT THROUGH SAT AS THE TROUGHING BETWEEN FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS DISSIPATES AND NEW SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH ITS STRONG TROUGH HERE AND AGAIN HAS GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES. THE ECMWF LOOKS MORE LIKE THE OTHER MODELS...ESPECIALLY BY SUN AND MON. A BLEND OF THE MWW3 AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS USED FOR WAVES...WITH ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SYNCH WITH THE WIND FORECAST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.