000 AGXX40 KNHC 291759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 159 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE DAY 1-2...LOW CONFIDENCE DAY 3-5. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED EQUALLY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS ALONG WITH HAND EDITS FROM DAY 3-5. A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF. RIDGING EXTENDS INTO THE NE GULF FROM ATLC HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF BERMUDA WITH MAINLY E-SE 10-15 KT...LOCALLY FRESH WINDS...AND 3-6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN. LIMITED CONVECTION IS SEEN ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAY DRIFT NW TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE HURRICANE BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN MEXICO ON THE E PACIFIC SIDE...ALSO S OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...LATER TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CARRIES THE REMNANT CIRCULATION TO THE N...THEN POSSIBLY BACK TO THE WNW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IS PRESENT WITH THESE REMNANTS. THE LATEST GFS MODEL LEAVES AT LEAST SOME OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM BEHIND...WITH BROAD LOW PRES STRETCHED OUT FROM THE SW GULF TO NE GULF THIS WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION HAS 20-30 KT OF WIND ON THE NW SIDE OF IT...WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NE GULF BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS THROUGH FRI...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LIGHT TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND...WITH SW TO NE TROUGHING SETTING UP IN THE GULF BY EARLY MON...YET WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. GIVEN SUCH DISAGREEMENT A BLENDED SOLUTION WAS USED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED EQUALLY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH SQUALLS ARE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A DIGGING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOW COUNTRY TO ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN...TRANSPORTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND TROPICAL N ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH NE-E FRESH WINDS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. SEAS ARE MAINLY 4-7 FT...EXCEPT 8-10 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE BLOWING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO MODERATE TO FRESH BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE PRES GRADIENT THERE SLACKENS A BIT...AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT THU-SAT DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF TROUGHING JUST W OF THE YUCATAN. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED EQUALLY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WITH HAND EDITS DAY 1-3. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDS A TROUGH JUST W OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. PLENTIFUL TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED TO THE NE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE SW N ATLC BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...ANALYSIS SHOWS 1029 MB HIGH PRES N OF BERMUDA WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE SW NEAR NE FLORIDA. LATEST IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS AND SHIPS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...EXCEPT FOR IN AMZ117 WHERE A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS ALSO SAMPLED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. SEAS ARE MAINLY 4-7 FT...EXCEPT JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE 7-9 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT. ILL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE E COAST OF FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE 12Z GFS HAS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...A CONTINUING PROBLEM THAT HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE MOST RECENT RUNS. WITH SUCH THE GFS SOLUTION NOW INDICATES EVEN A SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND BETWEEN MIAMI AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU...WITH THE TROUGH PUSHING INLAND/TO THE W LATE FRI NIGHT WHILE WINDS REMAIN 15-20 KT E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN E-SE 20 KT WINDS WITH THE TROUGH THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT... THEN 20-25 KT THU...THEN DECREASING BACK TO 15-20 KT FRI AS THE TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD. WINDS THEN DECREASE TO 10-15 KT DURING THE WEEKEND...THEN BECOME VARIABLE 5-10 KT OVER THE W HALF OF THE BASIN MON AS NEW WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING SETS UP ALONG OR NEAR 72W. THE CORRESPONDING MWW3 WAVE HEIGHTS ARE AT OR ABOVE 12 FT ALONG THE BAHAMIAN ATLC EXPOSURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND THUS HAND EDITS WERE MADE WITH SEAS CAPPED AT 8-10 FT CLOSER TO THE EC WAVE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.