000 AGXX40 KNHC 281835 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH WED...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THU THROUGH SUN. BLENDED EQUALLY WITH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF. MWW3 AND PREVIOUS FORECAST USED FOR WAVES. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF TO THE W CENTRAL GULF WHICH REACHES FROM HIGH PRES NEAR BERMUDA. NO NEW SCATTEROMETER PASSES COVERED THE GULF THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE CONTINUING TO REPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE PRIMARILY 4-6 FT...EXCEPT 1 TO 3 FT S OF 20N AND ALSO IN THE NE COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING TOWARD THE E GULF CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SW GULF. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH FROM THE NE PACIFIC OCEAN. LITTLE VARIANCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE IS SEEN WITH REGARD TO THE WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH EARLY THU WITH MAINLY MODERATE E-SE WINDS...EXCEPT 20 KT IN THE E GULF WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST BETWEEN THE PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING AND TROUGHING ALONG OR JUST E OF FLORIDA. THE GFS BRINGS THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE W FROM FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF LATE THU INTO FRI...MOVING IT NW TOWARD SE LOUISIANA THROUGH SAT. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM OVER THE SW GULF THU THROUGH SAT. THE GFS CARRIES A TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF BY 00Z FRI AND DEVELOPS 25 KT WINDS ON ITS E SIDE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND CARRIES CONSIDERABLY BROADER TROUGHING THAT EATS INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE N GULF COASTAL PLAIN FRI AND SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS BLENDED EQUALLY WITH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH SUN. MWW3 AND PREVIOUS FORECAST USED AS A BASE FOR WAVE FORECAST. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXIST. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT IN THE CARIBBEAN... EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE LEE OF CUBA...AND 7-9 FT SEAS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GULF OF HONDURAS AREAS TO THE NE ACROSS CUBA AROUND UPPER RIDGING...WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FEEDING FROM NORTHERN S AMERICA TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR PUERTO RICO TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND TO COVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THU. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGHING OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST...AS WELL AS OFF OF THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE A LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE NE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE EASTERLY FLOW. BY LATE WED...FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE MORE WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET DEVELOPING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...WHILE THE GFS AND NAVGEM CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT. THESE LATTER MODELS AGREE ON WEAKENING THIS LOW AND CARRYING SE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FRI...WITH THE GFS AGAIN SHOWING STRONGER WINDS ON THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED E PACIFIC SYSTEM. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED FOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CONTINUES TO BE VALID HERE. MEANWHILE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...LONG-FETCH FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS NEAR 8 FT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE THU THROUGH SUN. PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF. MWW3 WAVE USED WITH HAND EDITS/CAPPING OF THE WAVE HEIGHTS CLOSER TO EC WAVE GUIDANCE. BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING HAS SET UP ACROSS THE W CENTRAL/SW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC BASIN. COPIOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 28N W OF 72W. WINDS ARE MAINLY 20-25 KT NEAR THE TROUGHING...WITH MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO THE NW TO ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS TAKES THE TROUGH INTO THE E GULF ACROSS FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION INDICATES A MORE ILL-DEFINED AND WEAKER TROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FROM DAY 3-5. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AS WILL CORRESPONDING SEAS...WHILE THE GFS AND WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE REMAINS STRONGER/HIGHER. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.