000
AGXX40 KNHC 271850
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
250 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE...OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED 
EQUALLY WITH THE 12Z GFS...AND HALF WITH THE ECMWF. MWW3 USED 
FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.

SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRES IN THE ATLC TO ACROSS 
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE W CENTRAL GULF WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH 
CONTINUES TO LINGER IN THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N. A RECENT 
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS AND 
BUOYS INDICATED MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE 
BASIN...ALONG WITH 3-6 FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL WATERS. 

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH 
THE EASTERN GULF AND MOVE INTO FLORIDA. THE GFS REMAINS SLIGHTLY 
STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...WITH WINDS AT THE SURFACE IN THE E 
GULF FOR LATE WED THROUGH LATE THU...WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN 
THE W GULF CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY THE END OF 
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO 
WEAKEN AND SHIFT E ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER 
THE E GULF.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...                                              
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE...OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED 
EQUALLY WITH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE 
PARAMETERS.

A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE 
BASIN WITH PRIMARILY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. AN EXCEPTION 
IS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE 
PRESENT DUE TO LOWER PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA COMBINED WITH 
HIGH PRES RIDGING N OF THE REGION. SEAS ARE 8-9 FT IN AND JUST 
DOWNWIND OF THIS AREA OF STRONGER WINDS...WITH 4-7 FT SEAS 
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE LEE OF CUBA. DISAGREEMENT REMAINS 
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE AS THE GFS SOLUTION INDICATES WINDS 
INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WED 
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS 
WEAKER RIDING N OF THE THE REGION WITH MAINLY E-SE 10-15 KT 
WINDS ACROSS THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN. A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS 
WAS USED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ALONG WITH THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST. MEANWHILE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST IN 
THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...ALONG WITH 7-9 FT SEAS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED EQUALLY WITH THE 12Z 
GFS AND ECMWF. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.

A PESKY DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS RIGHT ALONG 65W N 
OF 27N WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THIS FRONT WILL 
FINALLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGHING IS APPROACHING THE AREA...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
CONTINUING TO EXPAND ACROSS ZONE AMZ117 AND SPREADING INTO 
AMZ119. PLENTIFUL TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FEEDING UP FROM THE NE 
PACIFIC AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE INTO THIS AREA AS WELL. 

OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY 
WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE AREAS OF CONVECTION WHERE 
WINDS MAY BE HIGHER. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONSISTENTLY 
20-25 KT BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT INTO TUE IN 
RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH 
PRES TO THE NE...AND SURFACE TROUGHING APPROACHING FLORIDA FROM 
THE W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER 
TROUGHING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR THE REGION THROUGH 
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS BOTH 
INDICATE PRIMARILY FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THIS 
AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF DIMINISHING WINDS 
SLIGHTLY FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.
 
$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.