000
AGXX40 KNHC 221802
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
202 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST 
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 30N FROM THE WESTERN ATLC 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TO THE TEXAS COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH 
THU. DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXPECTED 
TO PUSH COLD FRONT INTO THE NE GULF FRI NIGHT...DRIFT E THROUGH 
SUN...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE MON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-4 
FT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND BEHIND FRONT. GFS MODEL 
GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
CAMPECHE THIS WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY 
CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA AS IT INTENSIFIES BETWEEN 90W-95W. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...                                              
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH 
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES N-NE OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE WINDS 
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUN. A REPOSITIONED TROPICAL 
WAVE ALONG 79W S OF 14N MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH 
THU NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN FRESH E WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A 
NEW TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 43W S OF 07S IS PROJECTED TO 
REACH THE SOUTHERN PART OF TROPICAL N ATLC FRI THEN MOVE INTO 
THE SE CARIBBEAN EARLY SUN WITH AN INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS AND 
SHOWER ACTIVITY. FRESH E-NE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE 
EXPECTED FRI AND SAT THEN DIMINISH SUN AS A COLD FRONT MOVING 
ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC WEAKENS THE RIDGE N OF THE CARIBBEAN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST 
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES ALONG 31N IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLC WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT 
TO MODERATE SE WINDS N OF 25N AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER 
SOUTHERN WATERS. SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE W OF 70W THU 
AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF NE FLORIDA N OF GRAND BAHAMA. A 
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL PUSH A  
COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST FRI NIGHT WHICH SLIDES 
EASTWARD THROUGH SUN THEN WEAKENS NE OF THE REGION MON. GFS 
MODEL AND WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BRIEF PERIOD OF N-NE WINDS 
TO 25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT N OF 30N EARLY SAT INCREASING 
SEAS TO 6-7 FT...BUT LITTLE OF NOTE OTHERWISE.
 
$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.