000 AGXX40 KNHC 161815 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC HIGH PRES CENTER 1022 MB HAS RIDGE EXTEND INTO NE GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE BREEZE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FRESH SE TO S BREEZE N OF 24N W OF 96W DUE TO APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FT THROUGH BASIN. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED AS MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRESENT SCENARIO. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO NE BREEZE THROUGH ENTIRE BASIN EXCEPT ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE FRESH NE TRADES ARE NOTED. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE FRI TO A MODERATE BREEZE AND REMAIN SO FOR DURATION OF FORECAST PERIOD. GFS HAS A PULSATING WIND ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY SAT...BUT FOLLOWS CONSENSUS AFTER THAT. BROAD LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PATTERN NEXT FEW DAYS...AS UPPER LEVEL GUIDANCE SETS FLAT ZONAL WIND FLOW OVER REGION. TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 40W-41W APPROACHES TROPICAL ATLC BY SUN WITH WINDS SHIFTING NE AND INCREASING ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SEAS NOT EXPECTED TO BUILD ABOVE 8 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/BLEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES 1022 MB BUILDS IN WAKE OF WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH JUST MOVED E OF ZONE. FRESH NE REMAIN JUST N OF GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH LATE TODAY THEN DIMINISH. SEAS TO 8 FT QUICKLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. RIDGE BUILDS ALONG 29N WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E BREEZE ACROSS MOST OF BASIN. RIDGE DRIFT SE THROUGH FRI AND SETTLES THROUGH REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD OVER EASTERN EDGE OF BASIN. FORECAST REASONING REMAINS INTACT FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.