000
AGXX40 KNHC 151724
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
124 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                         
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

ATLC HIGH PRES CENTER 1025 MB EXTEND RIDGE WESTWARD THROUGH
WESTERN GULF. HIGH PRES DRIFT E ACROSS FLORIDA THU THEN BECOME 
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE NOTED ACROSS
ENTIRE BASIN. WIND FLOW INCREASES AND BECOMES MORE SE FRI TO THE
W OF 95W AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORMS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
   55W AND 64W... 
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN CUBA PROMPTS FRESH NE BREEZE
ACROSS BAHAMAS AND GREATER ANTILLES W OF 70W THROUGH FRI. FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZE ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 
MODERATE TRADES LATE FRI AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BREAKS DOWN. THIS IS
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS MODELS ARE HANDLING WIND
AND SEAS WELL.

FIRST TROPICAL WAVE OF 2013 SEASON IDENTIFIED ALONG 35W-36W AT 12
UTC EXPECTED TO APPROACH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TROPICAL ATLC VERY
LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS HAVE NOT DETECTED WAVE YET.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... 
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS MODEL THROUGH THU THEN ECMWF/UKMET FRONTAL
POSTN AS GFS APPEARS TOO FAST.

COLD FRONT MOVES E-SE ACROSS SE CORNER OF BASIN BRINGING FRESH NE 
BREEZE TO NORTHERN COASTS OF GREATER ANTILLES AND BAHAMAS TODAY
THROUGH LATE FRI. SEAS BARELY REACH 8 FT. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
GUIDANCE...WITH GFS A TAD SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS AT THE END OF
FORECAST PERIOD...PROMPTS FORECAST LEAN TOWARDS THE MAINSTREAM.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM RECENT THINKING. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND OVER GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH SAT.

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.