000
AGXX40 KNHC 150732
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
332 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                         
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND 

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED S THROUGH SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
HAS WASHED OUT ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA EARLY TONIGHT.
HIGH PRES CENTER NOW OFFSHORE OF FL PANHANDLE AND WILL DRIFT INTO
EXTREME NE GULF AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEXT FEW DAYS FOR
PERSISTENT WX PATTERN. RETURN FLOW HAS ALREADY STARTED NW
PORTIONS WHILE TPW ANIMATIONS SHOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH OLD
FRONT ADVECTING NW AND N ACROSS MEXICO AND REACHING FAR S TEXAS
ATTM. WEAK HIGH PRES AND MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO PERSIST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE S TO
SSE W HALF BY THU. MODELS SUGGEST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TROUGH TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY ACROSS WRN YUCATAN AND INDUCE AROUND 20 KT OF NE
TO N FLOW ALONG COAST. OTHERWISE...WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT...EXCEPT
FOR SEABREEZE ENHANCEMENT TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
   55W AND 64W... 
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND

COLD FRONT ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 80W ATTM WITH ENE TO WSW RIDGE
ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO AND SW N ATLC BEHIND IT...PRODUCING NELY
FLOW ACROSS CARIB W OF 72W. RECENT SCAT PASSES DEPICTED 20 KT
THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN LEE OF E CENTRAL CUBA...WHILE PEAL
WINDS OFF COLOMBIA 20-25 KT CONFINED TO RELATIVELY SMALL AREA S OF
14N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W. A 0530 ALTIMETER PASS THROUGH CENTRAL
CARIB SHOWED SEAS 9 FT ALONG 74.5W AND DOWNWIND SEAS OFF COLOMBIA
LIKELY 10 FT AS FORECAST BY WW3. NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES CONTINUING ACROSS NE
PORTIONS E OF MONA PASSAGE...AND STRONG TRADES PERSISTING S OF 14N
OFF COLOMBIA AND PULSING TO BROAD AREA OF 25 KT EACH NIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT BEFORE EPAC MONSOON TROF LIFT N TO ALONG 10N IN SW
CARIB AND SW ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS WITH RIDGE AXIS LIFTING TO ALONG
30N...WITH THESE MILDER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... 
MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 2 THEN
ECMWF/UKMET CONSENSUS 

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT E-SE ACROSS NE WATERS
TONIGHT...WHILE BEGINNING TO SNAG UP ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 22N
BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. AREA OF 20 KT N TO NE WINDS DEPICTED BY
RECENT 0410 OSCAT PASS WITH BUOY 41047 AT 9 FT. NARROWING ZONE OF
SEAS 7-8 FT TO CONTINUE BEHIND FRONT TODAY AS IT REACHES FROM
27N60W TO 21N77W BY 00Z THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATES W
OF 70W THU AND FRI WHILE DRIFTING NNW. NELY WINDS 20-25 KT
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN NARROW BAND NW OF FRONT THROUGH THE SE
BAHAMAS THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH SEAS TO 8 FT...BEFORE SLOWLY 
SUBSIDING TO 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT LATE TONIGHT. MODEST
DIFFERENCES IN GLOBAL MODELS HANDLING OF SFC LOW ALONG FRONT
DEVELOPING NE OF BERMUDA...WHICH IN TURN AFFECTS FRONTAL POSITION
NEXT FEW DAYS. ECMWF AND UKMET LOOK MORE IN LINE AFTER 48 HOURS
AND HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND WITH THROUGH DAY 2-5. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM RECENT THINKING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE IN SHALLOW CONVECTION BEHIND
FRONT ACROSS SE PORTIONS THROUGH BAHAMAS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. 

E OF THE ISLANDS...MODERATE E TRADES TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI N OF
15N WITH FRESH TRADES TO THE S. A LOW AMPLITUDE/LOW LAT EARLY
SEASON TROPICAL WAVE SUGGESTED BY STLT AND MODELS ALONG ABOUT 35W
ATTM AND EXPECTED TO REACH TOPICAL ATLC WATERS EARLY FRI AND
ADVECT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE AREA FOR SQUALLY WEATHER S
OF 11N OR 12N. THE SEASON IS UPON US.

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.