000
AGXX40 KNHC 141810
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
210 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                         
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND INTO PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE AS OBSERVATIONS FIT MODEL SOLUTION QUITE WELL.

COLD FRONT ALONG 24N E OF 84W MOVES SE OF BASIN TONIGHT WHILE
QUASI-STATIONARY DISSIPATES. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH S OF 22N ALONG
93W MOVE W INLAND WED. ELSEWHERE...1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTER
MOVES INTO N GULF COAST WITH RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG COASTAL WATERS. 
MODELS POINT TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE BREEZE THROUGH FRI...
THEN INCREASING SE WINDS AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAINST LOW
PRES TROUGH OVER MEXICO. SEAS TO REMAIN 3-5 FT THROUGHOUT EVEN 
LESS IN NE QUADRANT OF GULF.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
   55W AND 64W... 
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND INTO PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE AS OBSERVATIONS FIT MODEL SOLUTION QUITE WELL.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF BASIN
ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA WELL HANDLED BY MODELS. WEAKENING COLD
FRONT DISSIPATES AS IT ENTERS WESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRES JUST N OF AREA IN SW N ATLC. FRONT EDGES EASTWARD BY THU AND
FRI LESSENING GRADIENT AND EFFECTIVELY DIMINISHING WINDS ALONG
COAST OF COLOMBIA BY LATE THU. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-6 FT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... 
MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 
OBSERVATIONS GIVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST.  

COLD FRONT MOVES SE ACROSS SW N ATLC TODAY AND TONIGHT REACHING 
FROM 31N60W TO 24N65W TO 19N67W EARLY WED THEN OUT OF BASIN WED
NIGHT. SLOWER SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF FRONT EXPECTED TO MERGE
WITH FRONT WED. FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE N OF 28N ALONG BOTH
BOUNDARIES TONIGHT. NE WINDS SPREAD SW INTO BAHAMAS AND JUST N OF
GREATER ANTILLES WED AND WED NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 8 FT BUT QUICKLY
SUBSIDE ONCE WINDS DIMINISH. FRONT WEAKEN TO SHEARLINE THU WITH
NARROW ZONE OF FRESH NE WINDS. HIGH TO SHIFT E OF BERMUDA INTO
CENTRAL ATLC BY END OF WEEK TO PRODUCE MODERATE E TO E-NE BREEZE
ACROSS BASIN.

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.