000 AGXX40 KNHC 140740 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 340 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND INTO PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SE ACROSS THE E GULF WHILE REMAINING QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS W GULF. RECENT 0314Z ASCAT-B PASS FINALLY REVEALS WHAT I HAD SUSPECTED WAS OCCURRING UNDERNEATH DENSE CLOUD COVER OF PAST 48 HOURS. COASTAL TROUGH PERSISTS ALONG MEXICAN COAST S OF CABO ROJO AT 21.5N...AND BELIEVE FRONT HAS MERGED INTO IT OVER PAST FEW DAYS. FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM JUST OFFSHORE OF FL KEYS W TO 23.5N87W THEN ARCS W-NW THEN SW THEN S INTO COASTAL TROUGH. A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT INVERTED TROUGH LIES JUST E OF THIS AND IS ALIGNED NNW TO SSE INTO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO HAS MADE FRONTAL ANALYSIS DIFFICULT PAST 2 DAYS. ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 KT OF WNW TO NW FLOW OCCURRING W OF TROUGH...AND SUGGESTED NNE WINDS NEAR 20 KT OFF OF W COAST OF YUCATAN DUE TO EVENING TROUGH THAT OCCURS THERE. OTHERWISE...1024 MB HIGH SINKING INTO N GULF COAST NEAR SE COASTAL LA PRODUCING MODEST GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN BEHIND FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST NLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ALONG W COASTAL WATERS OF FL OVERNIGHT THEN SHIFT S AND SW ACROSS W PORTIONS OF STRAITS BEHIND SLOWLY SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONT TO BECOME ILL DEFINED TODAY W OF CUBA...EXPECTED FOR CONVERGING LLVL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS...WHERE STEERING LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER QUICKLY SE TODAY AND BEGIN TO TRANSPORT LINGERING MOISTURE N AND NW. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO RECENT FORECASTS INDICATED BY MODELS...AND HIGH PRES WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO PREVAIL THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP W PORTIONS WED AND EXPANDING TO ABOUT 88W THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND INTO PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND FRONT HAS ACTED TO BACK FLOW ACROSS CARIB W OF 74W. FRESH TO STRONG NELY WINDS 20-25 KT EXPECTED ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OFF OF COLOMBIA GENERALLY S OF 14N ATTM. A 2130Z CRYOSAT ALTIMETER OB THROUGH THIS REGION CONFIRMED 9 FT SEAS ALONG 77W AND NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE OCCURRING SINCE. ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS NE ATLC IS BECOMING CUT OFF FROM BUILDING INTO E PORTIONS OF AREA BY BOTH LINGERING TROFFING ACROSS ATLC ALONG 70W...AND LLVL REFLECTION OF DEEP LAYERED VORT ALONG 45W...WHERE AN OLD SHEAR LINE IS FOUND. GULF COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE NEXT FEW DAYS AND LAY DOWN MORE NE TO SW THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY 00Z THU THEN INTO SE BAHAMAS TO E CENTRAL CUBA BY 00Z FRI. FRESHENING NE WINDS WILL BE SEEN IN THE LEE OF CUBA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING...AS WELL AS THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON FRI-SAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS COLD FRONT MOVING PROGRESSIVELY SE ACROSS SW N ATLC TONIGHT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N70W THROUGH NW BAHAMAS TO JUST S OF FL KEYS. RECENT 0502Z OSCAT PASS DEPICTED 15-20 KT NNW TO N WINDS BEHIND FRONT WITH WINDS ALREADY VEERING TO NNE ALONG THE FL E COAST. WINDS TO FRESHEN TO 20-25 KT BEHIND FRONT TODAY ACROSS LARGE PORTION OF THIS AREA...SPREADING SW INTO BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FL...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT N THROUGH NE OF BAHAMAS TODAY EXCEPT TO 8 FT N OF 28N AND GRADUALLY WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM NW OF FRONT TONIGHT INTO WED. HIGH BEHIND FRONT TO SHIFT OFF SE U.S. COAST TONIGHT AND SHIFT SLOWLY SE AND WEAKEN WITH GRADIENT BEHIND WEAKENING FRONT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. FRONT TO WEAKEN TO SHEARLINE LATE WED INTO THU WITH NARROW ZONE OF NEAR 20 KT NE WINDS ALONG IT. HIGH TO SHIFT NE ACROSS BERMUDA AND INTO CENTRAL ATLC BY END OF WEEK TO PRODUCE MODERATE E TO ENE FLOW ACROSS AREA S OF RIDGE AXIS ALONG 29N. REMNANTS OF LINGERING DEEP LAYERED LOW CONTINUE THIS MORNING ALONG ABOUT 70W AND HAVE LIFTED NNE PAST 6 HOURS...AND RECENTLY BEGINNING TO BE FORCED E-SE BY APPROACHING FRONT. THIS LEAVING WEAK INVERTED TROFFING AND LIGHT WINDS SE OF FRONT TO MONA PASSAGE...WHERE E-SE TRADES ARE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD INTO REGION. SHALLOW LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGING BEHIND THIS TO INCH WWD TODAY BEFORE BEING SHUNTED E THEN SHEARED NE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH WED. WEAK N TO NE SWELL GENERATED BEHIND FRONT TO REACH ATLC COASTS OF CARIB ISLANDS ON THU. ECMWF HAS HANDLED THE LOW ALONG 70W BEST THE PAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE USED IT IN SHORT TERM. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN LOW PRES CENTER ALONG FRONT OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS STILL YIELD MODEST DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION OF FRONT... AND USED GFS-UKMET BLEND FOR FRONT AND WINDS N OF 26N AND ECMWF FOR FRONTAL POSITIONS AND WINDS S OF 26N. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.