000 AGXX40 KNHC 130802 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 402 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND INTO PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS WRN GULF AND REPOSITIONED A BIT NW OF BUOY 42055...WHICH IS STILL REPORTING DEWPOINT OF 78F...AND EXTENDS ENE TO JUST N OF TAMPA BAY ATTM. COASTAL TROFFING ACROSS LOWER MEXICAN COAST AND NOW BROAD TROF ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE DRIVING STRONGEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN ATTM NEAR FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE NE WINDS 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST TO BE DIMINISHING ATTM TO 15-20 KT. N TO NW WINDS ALONG MEXICAN COAST S OF 22N ARE TYPICALLY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED AND ECMWF RESPONDS BY MAINTAINING 20-25 KT THERE THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...PEMEX BUOY CS3 ALONG ABOUT 20N JUST OFF THE COAST HAS BEEN REPORTED W WIND 20 KT PAST FEW HOURS AND COASTAL LOW LIKELY STILL EXISTS THERE...AND SUGGESTS FRONT HAS NOT MOVED S OF THAT AREA. REGARDLESS...UPPER SUPPORT FOR FRONT HAS SHIFTED NE AND WILL PUSH E PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY INTO S FLORIDA TODAY...REACHING FROM UPPER KEYS WWD ACROSS THE GULF TO NEAR 24.5N90W THEN WNW INTO MEXICAN COAST BY 00Z THIS EVENING THEN WASH OUT W PORTIONS AS SELY RETURN FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED...WHILE E PORTION MOVES THROUGH STRAITS AND NW CUBA TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF AREA TUE. LINGERING TROFFING FORECAST BY MODELS ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES TO SINK INTO FAR NE GULF BEHIND FRONT AND PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH ELY FLOW S PORTIONS AND MODERATE RETURN FLOW NW PART. THIS PATTERN TO HOLD THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. I LIKED THE HI RES ECMWF FRONTAL POSITIONS BETTER THAN GFS FOR THE SHORT TERM. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND INTO PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE SHALLOW LLVL VORTEX N OF HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO BLOCK ATLC RIDGE FROM THE CARIB AND IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS MOST OF BASIN...WHILE RECENT ASCAT PASSES CONFIRM FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OFF COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA S OF 13.5N AND THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO BACK TO ENE ACROSS NW PORTIONS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING REGION...WITH SAME ASCAT PASS DEPICTING NE WINDS NEAR 20 KT THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE. GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT TO REACH S FL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SE TO NW CUBA TONIGHT...REACHING THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA BY 00Z TUE...THEN SE BAHAMAS TO E CENTRAL CUBA BY 00Z WED AS IT DISSIPATES. MODERATE HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BACK WINDS TO THE NE...W OF 75W...TODAY THROUGH LATE TUE BEFORE THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE W ATLC AND WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY WED AND THU W OF 75W. TRADES GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT ACROSS ALL BUT S CENTRAL PORTIONS S OF 14N THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN LEE OF CUBA AND THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT BEHIND FRONT. MAX WINDS OFF COLOMBIA COULD APPROACH 30 KT TUE NIGHT AS HIGH SHIFTS DUE N OF THAT LONGITUDE...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 25 KT DURING NOCTURNAL MAX. LLVL MOISTURE WILL FINALLY RETURN TO THE BASIN TUE THROUGH THU AS LOW N OF HISPANIOLA LIFTS OUT OF WAY AND ATLC MOISTURE ADVECTS WWD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND INTO PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE LOW CENTER N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23.5N69W CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES W...WITH WEAK TROF EXTENDING SW INTO N CENTRAL COAST OF DOM REP ATTM. AN AFTERNOON ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS 7-9 FT WITHIN A FEW DEGREES TO THE NW OF THE LOW...WHILE BUOY 41046 NOW REPORTING SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS FALLING TO 6 FT. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE VERIFIED BEST WITH THE MOTION OF THIS FEATURE AND HAVE FOLLOWED IT FOR PROGS THROUGH 48 HOURS. COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE ACROSS NW PORTIONS TODAY AND REACH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO KEY LARGO AT 00Z THIS EVENING THEN FROM 31N63W TO S CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W BY 00Z WED AND THEN 26.5N61W TO SE BAHAMAS BY 00Z THU. GFS AND UKMET ARE FASTEST OF GLOBAL MODELS...WHILE ECMWF STILL SLOWER...AND HAVE TRIED TO RESPECT THE ECMWF IN MY CONSENSUS FRONTAL POSITIONS THROUGH DAY 3. FRESH NORTHERLIES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AS IT SHIFTS WELL AWAY FROM COAST...AND CONTINUE WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM W OF FRONT AS IT MOVES E THROUGH WED MORNING. WINDS BEHIND FRONT BACK QUICKLY TONIGHT THROUGH WED HAS HIGH SHIFTS OFF SE COAST OF U.S. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FORCING EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND FRONT LATE TUE THROUGH WED AS IT MOVES THROUGH BAHAMAS TO PRODUCE SCT-NUM SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. LOW N OF HISPANIOLA TO OPEN UP INTO ELONGATED TROUGH TODAY AS IT DRIFTS W THEN HALTS ALONG 70W BEFORE BEING SPANKED BACK TO THE E TUE AND WED...LEAVING A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH N OF MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THIS TIME...AND LIGHT WINDS ATLC WATERS. WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE ACROSS PUERTO RICO ATTM MARKS DELINEATION BETWEEN VERY DRY AIR TO THE W AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE E AND SE. THIS MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT W ACROSS NE CARIB WATERS NEXT FEW DAYS BUT JUST SNEAK INTO ATLC WATERS N OF PR TODAY BEFORE BEING SHUNTED E AND SE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED AS FRONT APPROACHES. GFS AND UKMET IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 3 ACROSS THIS REGION AND HAVE LEANED STRONGLY TOWARDS THEIR CONSENSUS SOLUTION. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.