000 AGXX40 KNHC 090822 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT THU MAY 9 2013 ADDED CONFIDENCE LEVEL UNDER SW N ATLC SECTION MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FAR ERN GULF AT 27N84W BASED ON NEARBY PRES FROM BUOYS...AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0224 UTC LAST NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE ERN GULF PORTION. ELSEWHERE THE BUOY AND OIL RIG PLATFORMS ARE SHOWING E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WRN GULF W OF ABOUT 94W WHERE RETURN SE FLOW HAS INCREASED TO 15-20 KT. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS OF 1-2 FT E OF 91W...AND 2-4 FT W OF 91W WITH THE 4 FT SEAS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. THESE VALUES MATCH UP VERY WELL WITH THE GRIDDED WAVEWATCH AND ECMWF WAVE GUIDANCES. WILL USE THESE GUIDANCES THROUGH FRI... BUT THEN RELY ON THE GRIDDED WAVEWATCH FOR SAT THROUGH MON FOR EXPECTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS IN THE WRN PORTION. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS ONES WITH THE 1021 MB HIGH REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRES RESIDES OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE ALIGNED E TO W ALONG 27N INTO MON AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES OVER THE SRN PLAINS ADVANCES EWD. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY ON SAT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT ONCE IT ENTERS THE GULF. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE FORECAST OF A WEAKENING FRONT THAT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM THE NE GULF TO SW GULF SUN INTO MON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THE INITIAL AREA OF HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK...BUT THEN A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRES WILL SURGE S INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL LATE SUN AND MON OVERTAKING AND DISSIPATING THE FRONT. BNDRY LYR WINDS INDICATE THAT WINDS IN THE WRN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NE AT 15 KT SAT. THESE WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 15-20 KT SUN NIGHT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST ...AND CONTINUE INTO MON WITH SEAS THERE POSSIBLY BUILDING TO AROUND 5 OR 6 FT. MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL CHANGE LITTLE INTO SAT...THEN BECOME MAINLY NE-E 10-15 KT BY SAT EVENING AND CHANGE LITTLE INTO MON...WITH EXCEPTION OF THE NE GULF WHERE WINDS WILL BE MORE NLY IN DIRECTION. SEAS WILL REMAIN OF THE LOW SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PRES GRADEINT HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS NOTED BY NE-E 20 KT WINDS DISPLAYED BY THE 0220 UTC ASCAT PASS AS WELL AS BY WIND REPORTS FROM BUOY 42058 AT 15N75W. SIMILAR WINDS WERE INDICATED BY THE 0042 UTC ASCAT PASS TO BE CONFINED TO THE NRN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. ELSEWHERE... A WEAKER PRES PATTERN IS ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER NE-E TRADES OF 10-15 KT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF E-SE WINDS OF 10 KT IN THE WRN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. RECENT AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS SHOW SEAS IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE S OF 17N E OF 78W...EXCEPT FOR 6-8 FT SEAS IN THE SW PART OF THE SEA AND LOWER SEAS OF 3-4 FT IN THE NE PORTION AND 2-3 FT SEAS W OF 79W. SEAS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC SEAS ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE IN NE SWELLS. THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR TRADES TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS SW TOWARDS THE NRN TROPICAL ATLC. TRADES INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE INCREASE IN TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND SOME TO THE W ON SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE SUN INTO MON. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING W THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN...AND ESTIMATED TO BE ALONG 79W S OF 18N AT 06 UTC. A VORT MAX ON THE SRN TIER PORTION OF THE TROUGH LIES UNDER THE APEX OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS RESULTING IN CONVECTION FIRING UP WITHIN 60 NM OF LOCATION 10N78W. THE TROUGH IS MOVING QUICKER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. WILL FORECAST THE TROUGH TO REACH NEAR 82W TONIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT UNDER A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS WINDS/WAVES INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DAYS 3-5 IN REFERENCE TO NEW TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. USED ECMWF AND UKMET FOR POSN OF NEW TROUGH AND ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES FOR COLD FRONT POSN LATE SUN AND MON WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THE 06 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A TROUGH OVER THE SE BAHAMAS ALONG A POSN FROM NEAR 26N72W TO HAITI. HIGH PRES IS ANALYZED TO THE N OF THE TROUGH...WHILE A WELL PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE AREA. UPPER DIVERGENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IS BRINGING ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO THE SE OF A LINE FROM 31N68W TO 21N77W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN THIS AREA OF MOISTURE. THE 0224 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED E-SE 15-20 KT E OF THE TROUGH S OF 25N. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS CURRENTLY SHOW E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT SW OF THE BAHAMAS AND VARIABLE MAINLY S-SW WINDS AT 10 KT ELSEWHERE W AND N OF THE BAHAMAS. THE BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SEAS OF 4-5 FT IN NE SWELLS OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF E OF THE TROUGH WHERE HIGHER SEAS...IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE...ARE NOTED AND N AND W OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT ARE PRESENT. THE FORECAST WILL VARY LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS WITH REGARDS TO WINDS/SEAS. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST POSNS OF CURRENT TROUGH AS WELL AS INTRODUCE A NEW TROUGH OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY 72 HRS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT... THEN BE LOCATED NEAR A POSN FROM NEAR 27N73W TO ERN CUBA BY EARLY FRI NIGHT BEFORE DAMPENING OUT AS IT MOVES WNW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. AT THIS TIME...A NEW TROUGH WILL BE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG 25N63W TO NEAR 20N67W FOLLOWING THE SLOWER GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF AND UKMET FOR THIS NEW TROUGH COMPARED TO THE FASTER GFS. THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE WILL EXTEND WSW ACROSS THE AREA TO NE OF THIS TROUGH AS IT TRACKS WNW SIMILAR TO THE PRESENT OBSERVED TROUGH. WHILE THIS OCCURS...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY ON SUN. THIS FRONT IS AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GULF OF MEXICO FRONT. AFTER THE EARLY TIME PERIOD OF SUN...MODELS DIFFER WITH SPEED OF FRONT AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER OF THE MODEL SOLNS WITH COLD FRONT POSNS AFTER SUN MORNING. WILL FORECAST FRONT TO REACH NEAR 31N78W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL LATE SUN NIGHT...AND FROM NEAR 31N78W TO NE FLORIDA LATE SUN. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EWD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE INDUCED PRES GRADEINT EXPECTED TO LEAD MOSTLY 15 KT N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY LATE MON. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL BE GENERALLY E-SE AT 10-15 KT EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS E OF THE NEW TROUGH FOR DAYS 3-5. WINDS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE S-SW AT 10-15 KT WITH GENERALLY IN LOW LEVELS EXCEPT HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHS. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.