000 AGXX40 KNHC 080847 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 435 AM EDT WED MAY 8 2013 UPDATED SW N ATLC SECTION MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH MORE WEIGHT ON THE GFS 00 UTC RUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE WEAK TROUGH MOVING INLAND THE FLORIDA COAST JUST N OF TAMPA. A 1018 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS NEAR 27N92W. LATEST BUOY AND OIL RIG PLATFORMS ARE PRESENTLY SHOWING NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT E OF 88W N OF 27N...AND NW-N 5-10 KT WINDS S OF 27N E OF 88W. W OF 88W WINDS ARE E-SE 10-15 KT...EXCEPT IN THE SW PORTION WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION IS NE-E. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE ...WITH LOWER SEAS OF 0-1 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION. THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS ONES...WHICH HAVE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARDS CONSISTENCY IN THE RUN TO RUN OF MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF. BASED ON THIS WILL FORECAST THE HIGH TO MOVE IN A GENERAL EWD DIRECTION WHILE SLIGHTLY INTENSIFYING AS IT REACHES THE ERN GULF NEAR 27N83W BY EARLY THIS EVENING. IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOUT STATIONARY INTO SUN. AS THIS HAPPENS...LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP W OF THE AREA OVER THE SRN PLAINS REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW PRES AND THE HIGH CENTER WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF WED INTO LATE FRI NIGHT. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEAS IN THE WRN GULF TO BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SRN TEXAS COAST. GFS/ECMWF AND EVEN THE UKMET MODEL SOLNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW GULF ALONG THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY SAT AND STALLS INTO SUN AS HIGH PRES TO ITS W BUILDS S. WINDS IN THE FAR WRN RESPOND BY BACKING AROUND TO THE NE AT AROUND 15 KT SAT AND SUN. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA PROVIDES FOR LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING CONDITIONS WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH DAY 5 (SUN). ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT A WEAK PRES PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN MAINTAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE 2-3 FT E OF ABOUT 76W...AND 1-2 FT W OF 73W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE MOST ZONES IN NE SWELLS OVER...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE 5-6 FT IN THE NRN ZONE 127. SEAS OF 5-6 FT ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL N ATLC INTO SAT EXCEPT FOR HIGHER MAX SEAS...UP TO 7 FT...ATTRIBUTED TO A NE SWELL COMPONENT IN THE FAR SRN PORTION LATE FRI THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 5-6 FT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. AN INCREASE OF THE TRADE WINDS IN THE ERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL PORTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC BUILDS S AND SW TOWARDS THE NRN TROPICAL ATLC AND NE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND INTERACTS WITH RELATIVELY LOWER PRES OVER THE FAR SRN CARIBBEAN AND S AMERICA LEADING TO A TIGHTER PRES GRADEINT ACROSS THOSE SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN 48 HRS AGO IS ROUGHLY ALONG 71W AT 06 UTC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE REDEVELOPING ALONG WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE TROUGH S OF 14N TO JUST INLAND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS LINE OF THINKING...AND ALSO THAT FROM THE PAST 24 HRS IN FORECASTING THE TROUGH TO DRIFT W THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE IT DISSIPATES IN A DRIER SURROUNDING ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE MAINLY MODERATE IN VELOCITY WITH WINDS POSSIBLY HIGHER IN GUSTS RELATED TO SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...UPDATED UPDATED TO INCLUDE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH TROUGH NEAR 70W MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE 06 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N73W TO JUST N OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED IN THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 31N79W SW TO JUST N OF DAYTONA BEACH. A WARM FRONT ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 31N69W AND REACHES SE TO 28N66W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TO 26N65W. A TROUGH IS DEVELOPING JUST N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 70W S OF 25N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FORMING WITHIN 180 NM E AND 15O NM W OF THE TROUGH. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE WIND SPEEDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS NE OF THE WARM FRONT. A WIND SHIFT FROM SW AHEAD OF THE POST-FRONTAL TROUGH TO W-NW BEHIND IT WAS CAPTURED BY THE 0244 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT. ELSEWHERE WIND DIRECTION IS FROM THE E-SE TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS...SE TO THE E AND NE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND NE IN DIRECTION W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SEAS IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE TO THE NE OF THE WARM FRONT...4-6 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT W OF 76W. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO FEATURES AND IMPACTS ON WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST PERIODS COVERED BY THIS NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND THU AS IT WEAKENS. THE POST -FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH ALONG 70W WILL EXPAND SOME TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS IT MOVES WNW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE LATE SAT. TO THE E OF THE TROUGH...HIGH PRES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL EXTEND SW INTO THE ERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT. THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGHOUT ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOW SEA STATE. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION SAT EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY REACH A POSN FROM NEAR 31N78W TO NE FLORIDA BY LATE SUN PRECEDED BY SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.