000 AGXX40 KNHC 070712 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 312 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE LATEST IR SHORTWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT AS A FAINTLY VISIBLE BROKEN LOW CLOUD LINE THAT AS OF 06 UTC EXTENDS FROM SE FLORIDA SW TO NEAR 24N88W. A NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK 1018 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED OVER THE WRN GULF AT 27N94W. LATEST BUOY AND OIL RIG PLATFORMS ARE PRESENTLY SHOWING NW WINDS OF 10 KT E OF 92W...EXCEPT FOR W-NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT N OF 27N. W OF 92W...WINDS ARE HAVE BECOME E-SE AT 5-10 KT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW PORTION WHERE WINDS ARE SW-W AT 10-15 KT. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE E OF 89W...AND 1-2 FT W OF 89W WITH LOWER SEAS OF 0-1 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION. THIS FORECAST WILL FOLLOW CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS ONES AS WELL AS CONSISTENCY IN THE RUN TO RUN OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON THIS WILL FORECAST THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO PUSH E OF THE GULF LATER THIS MORNING WHILE THE WRN GULF HIGH CENTER BEGINS TO SLIDE EWD. A WEAK TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND A BROAD AND WEAKENING LOW PRES SYSTEM LOCATED OVER N CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS THE NE GULF TODAY. THIS TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT WINDS AND SEAS OVER THAT PORTION OF THE GULF. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WRN GULF HIGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL GULF BY WED...AND THE ERN GULF PORTION LATE WED WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOUT STATIONARY INTO SAT. AS THIS HAPPENS...LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP W OF THE AREA OVER THE SRN PLAINS REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW PRES AND THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE ONSET OF MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN SE FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE WRN GULF WED THROUGH EARLY FRI EVENING WITH SEAS THERE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SRN TEXAS COAST. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLNS ARE IN CONSENSUS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NW GULF DURING SAT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS THERE TO BACK AROUND TO THE NE AT AROUND 15 KT. OTHERWISE...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CENTER WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE AREA MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEA STATE THROUGH DAY 5 (SAT) ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN REFERENCE TO SURFACE TROUGH WEAK PRES PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN MAINTAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE 2-3 FT E OF ABOUT 73W...AND 1-2 FT W OF 73W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC...SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT S OF 18N IN NE SWELLS...AND SLIGHTER HIGHER IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE ALSO DUE TO NE SWELLS N OF 18N. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 5-6 FT BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT EXCEPT FOR HIGHER MAX SEAS...UP TO 7 FT...ATTRIBUTED TO A NE SWELL COMPONENT IN THE FAR SRN PORTION LATE FRI INTO SAT. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC BUILDS S AND SW TOWARDS THE NRN TROPICAL ATLC AND NE CARIBBEAN SEA. A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG A POSN FROM NEAR SE PUERTO SSW TO NEAR 11N69W MOVING W AROUND 7 KT. DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IS STREAMING ENE ACROSS THE NRN TROPICAL N ATLC UNDERNEATH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT EARLIER DEVELOPED ALONG AND NEAR THE TROUGH HAVE RECENTLY DISSIPATED...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS...FOR THE MOST PART...SEEM TO BE INITIALIZING THE TROUGH POSN TOO FAR TO THE W. FOR FORECAST POSNS OF THE TROUGH...THE MODELS ARE TOO FAST IN TAKING IT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS BEFORE DAMPENING IT OUT. WILL GO WITH A SLOWER MOTION AFTER THIS MORNING AS SUPPORTED BY A WEAK STEERING SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW...AND FORECAST THE TROUGH TO DRIFT W THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...AND TO BE NEAR A POSN OF ABOUT 70W BY EARLY WED EVENING. BY 72 HRS...NOT MUCH IF ANY SIGNATURE OF THIS TROUGH IS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS SO AM INCLINED TO NOT PORTRAY IT ON THE MANUAL WINDWAVE FORECAST/SURFACE CHARTS AT THAT TIME. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THE 06 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N76W SW TO JUST OFFSHORE THE SE FLORIDA COAST. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 31N75W SE TO 27N69W WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT TO 24N64W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FAINTLY DETECTED BY THE 0124 UTC ASCAT TO BE OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS FROM 21N66W SW TO ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. HIGH PRES IS ANALYZED ELSEWHERE. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE WIND SPEEDS THROUGHOUT EVEN IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. WIND DIRECTION IS FROM THE E-SE TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS AND MAINLY VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS NE OF WARM/STATIONARY FRONT WHERE THE 0124 UTC ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIPS IN THAT AREA SHOW STRONGER WINDS AT 15-20 KT FROM THE SE IN DIRECTION. THE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE WITHIN THE AREA OF 15-20 KT WINDS. SEAS ELSEWHERE E OF THE BAHAMAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE IN NE SWELLS...EXCEPT 2-4 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NE OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH A POSN FROM NEAR 31N74W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TO N CENTRAL CUBA BY WED EVENING THEN BECOME STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS. THE REMNANT TROUGH SHOULD BE ALONG 71W/72W S OF 28N BY LATE THU AS A 1021 MB HIGH CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR 29N75W. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER INTO MOST OF SAT KEEPING A DENT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE THAT TRIES TO BUILD SW INTO THE ERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...A WEAK PRES PATTERN PREVAILS KEEPING CONTROL OF WIND/SEA CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT INTO SAT. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.