000 AGXX40 KNHC 060743 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 343 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLENDED GFS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE LATEST IR SHORTWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A WELL DEPICTED CLOUD LINE MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA...AND TO 26N89W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TO 25N95W. A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED AT 28N94W. LATEST BUOY REPORTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT SHOW WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW AT 10 KT TO NW AT 15-20 KT W OF FRONT TO NEAR 90W. THE 0326 UTC ASCAT PASS NICELY CAPTURED THESE WINDS. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE N-NE AT 10 KT...WITH LIGHTER WINDS...E-SE IN DIRECTION AT 5-10 KT IN THE FAR NW PORTION. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE E OF ABOUT 90W...EXCEPT FOR SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN THE NE PORTION. LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE IN THE NW PORTION. THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE FAR SE GULF THIS EVENING. A WEAK TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NE GULF TUE...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO WINDS AND SEAS THERE. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EWD TONIGHT...AND REACH THE ERN GULF WED WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTO FRI. AS THIS HAPPENS LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP W OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND W TEXAS REGIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ONSET OF MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN SE FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE WRN GULF WED THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS THERE EXPECTED BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT PER GUIDANCE FROM THE GRIDDED WAVEWATCH. OTHERWISE...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CENTER WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEA STATE THROUGH DAY 5 (FRI). ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE A WEAK PRES PATTERN IS KEEPING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGES OF 2-3 FT...EXCEPT FOR 1-2 FT OVER PORTIONS OF THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE 3-4 FT IN DECAYING NE SWELLS OVER THE NRN TROPICAL N ATLC. SEAS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO 4-6 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...5-6 FT BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO FRI EXCEPT FOR SEAS TO 7 FT ALSO IN NE SWELLS IN THE SRN ZONES. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC BUILDS S AND SW TOWARDS THE NRN TROPICAL ATLC AND NE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THE 06 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS NOW WEAKENING FROM NEAR 25N65W WNW TO 27N75W WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT TO N OF THE REGION AT 31N78W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 20N65W SW TO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HIGH PRES IS ANALYZED ELSEWHERE. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS REVEAL SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE IN NE SWELLS NE OF THE BAHAMAS AS WELL AS E OF THE BAHAMAS N OF 25N. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE PRIMARILY IN NE SWELLS. THE ABOVE MENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NE OF THE AREA. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS A WEAK PRES PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL DICTATE WIND/SEAS CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC THIS MORNING...THEN REACH A POSN FROM NEAR 31N78W TO SE FLORIDA BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT WEAKENS...AND A POSN FROM NEAR 31N72W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. A WIND SHIFT FROM S-SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO W BEHIND IT IS EXPECTED. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.