000 AGXX40 KNHC 050754 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 354 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLENDED GFS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR SHORTWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM JUST INLAND TAMPA SSW TO FAR NW CUBA AND TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED OVER THE WRN GULF AT 26N91W AS WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE 0346 UTC ASCAT PASS. THIS ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH LATEST BUOY REPORTS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE GULF WITH WINDS IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE. MODERATE WINDS ARE NW IN DIRECTION E OF 89W...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE NE-E IN DIRECTION W OF 89W EXCEPT TO THE W OF 93W WHERE WINDS HAVE BECOME SE-S IN DIRECTION. IN THE FAR NW PORTION...HOWEVER... SW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15-20 KT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM POISED TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT RESIDUAL NW SWELLS IN THE ERN GULF ARE ALLOWING FOR 6-8 FT THERE...BUT ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE 3-6 FT...WITH LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT W OF ABOUT 92W. THE PRESENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ESE OF THE GULF DURING THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE NW GULF DURING THIS MORNING... THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NRN GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY W-NW WINDS OF 20 KT WITH A POCKET OF WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AFFECTING NRN PORTION OF THE NE GULF AND MAINLY THE ERN PORTION OF THE N CENTRAL GULF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHNG TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MON. SEA WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO 8 FT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITHIN THE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS. WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE NW GULF WILL MOVE E TO THE CENTRAL GULF LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED...AND TO THE EASTERN GULF LATE WED INTO THU ALLOWING FOR MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF WED AND THU WITH SEAS. OTHERWISE...THE WEAK HIGH PRES WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEA STATE THROUGH DAY 5 (THU). ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ANOMALOUSLY LIGHT WINDS AND VERY CALM SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH SEAS OF AROUND 2-3 FT. THE EXCEPTION IS W OF 80W WHERE PREVIOUSLY NW FLOW OF 20-25 KT HAD ELEVATED SEAS THERE TO 8-9 FT. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THIS NW FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO 10-15 KT...AND THE SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO AROUND 5-6 FT PER REPORTS FROM BUOY 42056 AT 20N85W. A DECAYING NE SWELL IS ALLOWING FOR SEAS OF 3-4 FT OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON...THEN BUILD AGAIN TO 4-5 FT LATE MON AND TUE AND TO 4-7 FT BY LATE TUE AND THROUGH THU MAINLY IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AS NEW SWELLS ARRIVE INTO THAT AREA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THE 06 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK 1006 MB LOW OVER NE FLORIDA WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM IT SE TO 24N73W AND TO NEAR 22N65W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N66W SW TO ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS HIGH PRES PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS TIGHT AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...REMAINS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS AS A RESULT OF THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 1006 MB LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRES JUST TO THE NE OF THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS WITH WIND COMPONENT FROM THE E WERE JUST RECENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS THESE SAME FAR NW WATERS UNDER THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT...HOWEVER CURRENT AND RECENT BUOY DATA AS WELL AS SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THESE WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO BELOW GALE FORCE AS THE 1006 MB LOW CONTINUES TO PULL TO THE N. WILL ALLOW THE WARNING FOR PART OF ZONE 111 TO EXPIRE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE MAX PEAK SEAS UNDER THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AREA ARE GRADUALLY LOWERING PER REPORTS FROM BUOY 41012 AT 30N80.5W...WITH THE MAX VALUE AT 12-13 FT. THIS IS ABOUT 2 FT ABOVE THE GRIDDED WAVEWATCH AND ECMWF WAVE GUIDANCES. WILL APPLY THIS DIFFERENCE TO FIRST 12 HRS OF THE FORECAST FOR THAT PORTION OF ZONE 111...THEN WILL FOLLOW GUIDANCE CLOSELY. WILL ALSO FOLLOW WAVE GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR REMAINDER OF SW N ATLC ZONES THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STATIONARY FRONT TIED INTO THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HRS WITH E TO SE WINDS TO ITS N SLOWLY DIMINISHING. ELSEWHERE...RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PROVIDING FOR LOW SEA STATE VALUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS A WEAK PRES SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS MAINLY NOTED ACROSS ZONES 119...113...115 AND 121 WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THOSE WATERS THROUGH MON NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NW PORTION WILL SHIFT NE THROUGH TUE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT MENTIONED BELOW. A WEAK PRES PATTERN...MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON ...AND MOVE NE OF ZONE 113 TUE. LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUE EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.