000 AGXX40 KNHC 040752 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 352 AM EDT SAT MAY 4 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLENDED GFS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT NOW ORIENTED IN ALMOST A N TO S FASHION FROM JUST E OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH PRES IS BUILDING SE ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND ABOUT 94W AS WAS SUGGESTED BY THE EDGE OF AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0220 UTC LAST NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION. LIGHTER N-NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE OVER THE NW GULF PORTION. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SEAS PEAK SEA HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2 FT ARE PRESENTLY HIGHER THAN THEN GRIDDED WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. NOW THAT THE WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED EWD TO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE FRONT WILL ALSO TRANSLATE EWD WHILE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INLAND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO SUN...AND MERGES WITH A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE FLORIDA E COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SW U.S WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF EARLY ON SUN. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS NEXT FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NRN GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY W-NW WINDS OF 20 KT WITH WINDS BRIEFLY TO 25 KT IN THE NE GULF PORTION DURING SUN BEFORE DIMINISHNG TO 15-20 KT LATE SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS THE GULF. EXPECT SEAS TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO MAX OF 8 FT BEHIND THIS NEXT COLD FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ANOMALOUSLY LIGHT WINDS AND VERY CALM SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH SEAS OF AROUND 2-3 FT. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN WHERE NW FLOW FUNNELING IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS DEPICTED AS NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 18N AND W OF 84W AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL PER THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0220 UTC LAST NIGHT...AND REPORTS FROM BUOY 42056 AT 20N85W. EXPECT THIS NW FLOW TO SPREAD SOME TO THE S TODAY WITH SEAS TO 8 FT...BUT THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT INTO SUN WITH SEAS THERE LOWERING TO 5-6 FT. A DECAYING NE SWELL IS ALLOWING FOR SEAS OF 4 FT OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON...THEN BUILD AGAIN TO 4-5 FT LATE MON AND TUE AND TO 4-7 FT BY LATE TUE AND WED MAINLY IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AS NEW SWELLS ARRIVE INTO THAT AREA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH AVERAGE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THE 06 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS THE WEAK LOW PRES THAT WAS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THE PAS FEW DAYS NOW OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. IT HAS CONNECTED WITH AN OLD FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM NE FL SE INTO CENTRAL ATLC. HIGH PRES NOSING SW INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NW WATERS WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS...E IN DIRECTION... CONTINUE. SEAS THERE ARE MAXING OUT TO 16 FT PER BUOY 41012 AT 30N80.5W. THIS MAX VALUE IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT WAVEWATCH GUIDANCES ARE SUGGESTING SO WILL FOLLOW THE GUIDANCES CLOSELY FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE GRADEINT LESSENING OVER THE NW WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER TO THE N. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRESENT ONGOING AFOREMENTIONED GALE WINDS TO WEAKEN TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE ...AND CONTINUE IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL SLOWLY LIFT N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEAK. MODELS INDICATE THAT FRESH E-SE WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE N SIDE OF THIS ZONE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MON. ELSEWHERE...RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PROVIDING FOR LOW SEA STATE VALUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED AS A WEAK PRES SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE ZONE WILL INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MON. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE WARNING THROUGH 12 UTC THIS MORNING AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.