000 AGXX40 KNHC 031043 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 640 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2013 UPDATED WARNINGS SECTION MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE SUN THROUGH TUE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM VICINITY S CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE SW GULF. A 1007 MB LOW IS OVER THE ERN PART OF THE GULF NEAR 35N85W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NW TO NEAR SE LOUISIANA...AND ANOTHER TROUGH SSW TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND INLAND NRN BELIZE. LATEST BUOY REPORTS ARE SHOWING NW-N WINDS OF 25-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THE REPORTS ALSO SHOW SEAS MAX COMBINED SEAS PEAKING AT 10-11 FT IN THE NW PORTION. ELSEWHERE...BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS INDICATEMODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WATER...AND LIGHTER WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5-10 KT E AND SE OF THE LOW. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-4 FT TO THE E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE SE PORTION. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT. THE LOW WILL MOVE IN A ENE MOTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN GULF TODAY...AND EXIT THE GULF TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH E TO THE ERN GULF BY THIS EVENING...THEN WEAKEN AS AS EXITS THE ERN GULF TONIGHT. PRETTY WELL PRONOUNCED CAA BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS RELATIVELY WARM SST OFF THE TEXAS COAST SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE NW-N WINDS TO REACH GALE FORCE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN DURING TODAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY BECOMES ESTABLISHED. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TO AROUND 12 OR 13 FT IN THE SW GULF TONIGHT PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. GFS/ECMWF AND UKMET GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS LATE SAT THROUGH SUN FOLLOWED BY NW WINDS OF 20 KT WITH FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS THESE AREAS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...3-4 FT IN THE NE CARIBBEAN...AND 2-3 FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE TRAILING TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO 1007 MB EXTENDS SW TO INLAND NRN BELIZE. THE TROUGH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NW WINDS TODAY...THEN DIMINISH BY SAT AS THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS. DESPITE THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY...NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. LIGHT TO GENTLE E TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS OF 2-3 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH AVERFAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEADING TO GALE FORCE WINDS THERE AS WAS VIVIDLY DISPLAYED BY THE 0248 UTC ASCAT AND ALSO BY RECENT AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 10-16 FT AS SEEN BY REPORTS FROM BUOY 41012 AT 30N80.5W. MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS FORECAST WILL VARY LITTLE WITH PREVIOUS ONE WITH RESPECT TO THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE TRACKING EWD ACROSS S FLORIDA TONIGHT...AND TO THE GENERAL ARE OF THE NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AS IT WEAKENS TO A TROUGH SAT THROUGH SUN BEFORE IT LIFTS N AND NE LATE SUN INTO MON. THE GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE NW PORTION ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS ONE OF THE PLAYERS IN THE VERY TIGHT PRES GRADEINT RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE CONDITIONS...BEING A STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE THAT NUDGES S INTO THE NW PORTION BEGINS TO RELAX SHIFT E AND NE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW AND COLD FRONT BEHIND IT SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 7-9 FT SUN IN THE NW PART...AND TO LOWER RANGES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...GALE WARNING TODAY GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING TODAY GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE WARNING N OF 28N W OF 77W THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.