000
AGXX40 KNHC 021826
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
226 PM EDT THU MAY 2 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE 1011 MB PREVAILS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF
WATERS. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE NE GULF
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS.
SEAS ARE 4 FT OR LESS ACROSS ALL GULF WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE NE
GULF WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE. MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE SURFACE LOW. THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRI REACHING THE SW N ATLC WATERS SAT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY THIS EVENING...AND
WITH DECENT CAA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE OFF THE
COAST OF TAMAULIPAS IN GMZ017 BY EARLY FRI. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
WARMER SST OFF S TEXAS...EXPECT ENOUGH POST FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY TO PROMOTE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF GMZ011...AND NE PORTIONS OF GMZ017 DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRI MORNING. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT E AND
WEAKEN THROUGH SAT WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE FRI INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE
OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...4-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND 2-4 FT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WATERS SHIFTING ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS. WINDS WILL FRESHEN BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY THEN DIMINISH BY SAT AS THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS.
DESPITE THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY...NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN
GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT TO GENTLE E TO SE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SEAS 3 FT OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 10 FT OVER THIS AREA AS
DEPICTED BY THE LATEST SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS IN THE
4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-3 FT W OF THE
BAHAMAS. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTING ACROSS FLORIDA FRI AND INTO THE
SW N ATLC WATERS SAT. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DISSIPATE INTO
A TROUGH BY SUN. THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE N
OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE PREVAILING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THIS
WILL KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MON. AS A RESULT...FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NW PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE WINDS AND
SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI. 
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...GALE WARNING FRI.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.