000
AGXX40 KNHC 282109 RRA
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
429 PM EDT SUN APR 28 2013

UPDATED TO ADD GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI GMZ017-GMZ023

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO... 
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE AS MOST MODELS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 4 WITH GFS/ECMWF BLEND AND ENSEMBLE.
BOOSTED GFS ALONG COAST OF MEXICO ON DAY SIX TO CAPTURE 
EXPECTED GALES.

RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1028 MB HIGH PRES OFF EASTERN SEABOARD TO 
COAST OF TEXAS. DEEP LAYERED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE ENERGIZES
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND ITS ATTENDANT VIGOROUS COLD
FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG TEXAS COAST
AND ADJACENT WATERS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE TONIGHT AS SUPPORTING CYCLONE RUSHES 
NE. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THU AS WEAK PRES
PATTERN REMAINS OVER BASIN. CYCLONE ALOFT BRINGS UNUSUAL LATE
SEASON STRONG COLD FRONT INTO NW GULF LATE THU WITH N WINDS
EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE ALONG COAST OF MEXICO FRI. AT THIS
POINT...ALTHOUGH TIMING WAS IN SYNCH...MODELS DIVERGE AND WIND
SPEEDS WAS INCREASED TO GFS TO MATCH.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS MODELS
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 6.

HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF REGION MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE 
ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE E FLOW. FRESH BREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS
TUE THROUGH THU AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS BEFORE DRIFTING E. LONG
PERIOD NE SWELL 6-7 FT SEEP THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES TODAY AND
TONIGHT THEN BEGINNING SUBSIDING THROUGH WED.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON COMPATIBILITY 
WITH ENSEMBLE.

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING E OF 65W FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING OFF COAST OF
CAROLINAS. HIGH PRES REMAIN CONTROLLING FEATURE THROUGH WED WITH 
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E FLOW VEERING SE MON AND TUE AS HIGH PRES
DRIFT E. MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OFF NE
FLORIDA COAST BY LATE MON AHEAD OF WEAK TROUGH CROSSING SE CONUS.
LINGERING LONG PERIOD NE SWELL TRAINS 6-8 FT AFFECT WATERS E OF
BAHAMAS...BEFORE SUBSIDING WED.

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.