000
AGXX40 KNHC 280721
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
321 AM EDT SUN APR 28 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO... 
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE AS MOST MODELS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5 WITH GFS/ECMWF BLEND. STRAIGHT GFS ALONG
COAST OF MEXICO ON DAY SIX TO CAPTURE EXPECTED GALES.

RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 1026 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS TO THE
TEXAS COAST. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A TRAILING TROUGH THROUGH WEST
TEXAS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND
ADJACENT WATERS OF THE NW GULF AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING OVER COASTAL TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
DIFFUSE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT. A
WEAK TROUGH IS NOTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 03 UTC INDICATED WINDS TO 20 KT ON THE N
AND NW COASTS OF YUCATAN...BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE HIGH PRES
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH
WILL MIGRATE WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDDAY. E WINDS TO
20 KT ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING...S
OF THE HIGH PRES. BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS ARE RUNNING
AROUND 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE GULF...EXCEPT MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN
THE STRAITS AND SE GULF. OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK INDICATE A WEAK PRES PATTERN S OF THE
RIDGE. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE SW GULF WHERE WINDS WILL PULSE
TO 15 TO 20 KT DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE
RESIDENT WEAK TROUGHING REMAINING IN THAT AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORMING A MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MID WEEK THAT LIFTS NE LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO THE TEXAS COAST...BUT LATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED SHOWING ARRIVAL THU MIDDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO
FRI...DECENT CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
TO MIX TO THE SURFACE AND GALES STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG
THE MEXICAN COAST. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS MODELS
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF THE BASIN. MODELS CONSENSUS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS
PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN DIMINISHING WINDS THU AS THE RIDGE
TO THE N WEAKENS. E TO SE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL
INCREASE BY MON IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.
MEANWHILE NE SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO SIX FEET AND PERIODS TO 13
SECONDS CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. MWW3 AND ECWAVE MODELS INDICATE THIS SWELL WILL DECAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON 
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH ENSEMBLE.

MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING E OF 65W FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. THE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATING FEATURE
THROUGH MIDWEEK...SUPPORTING MODERATE NE TO E FLOW VEERING E TO SE
MON AND TUE AS THE HIGH PRES GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. GENTLE TO MODERATE
TO FRESH SE TO S FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY
LATE MON...AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH THE SE UNITED
STATES. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL WILL COVER THE WATERS
OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS...BEFORE SUBSIDING BY MIDWEEK. 

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.